Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)
$51.25
+0.40 (+0.79%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 51.49 | 103.71 | 271.03 | 351.41 | 363.33 | 631.99 | 1,099.32 | 1,912.20 | 3,326.18 | 5,785.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -290.57 | -345.38 | -132.22 | -338.69 | -380.47 | -1,449.99 | -2,522.18 | -4,387.20 | -7,631.31 | -13,274.27 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.08 | -24.83 | -43.91 | -73.09 | -116.12 | -127.43 | -221.66 | -385.57 | -670.68 | -1,166.61 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -294.64 | -370.22 | -176.12 | -411.79 | -496.59 | -1,577.42 | -2,743.84 | -4,772.77 | -8,301.99 | -14,440.88 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 51.25 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.939 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 69.91 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.81 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 136.15% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.124 |
| Total Debt | 31.59 |
| Total Equity | 3,583.10 |
| Total Capital | 3,614.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.87 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.13 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 51.49 | 103.71 | 271.03 | 351.41 | 363.33 | 631.99 | 1,099.32 | 1,912.20 | 3,326.18 | 5,785.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -290.57 | -345.38 | -132.22 | -338.69 | -380.47 | -1,449.99 | -2,522.18 | -4,387.20 | -7,631.31 | -13,274.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.08 | -24.83 | -43.91 | -73.09 | -116.12 | -127.43 | -221.66 | -385.57 | -670.68 | -1,166.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | -294.64 | -370.22 | -176.12 | -411.79 | -496.59 | -1,577.42 | -2,743.84 | -4,772.77 | -8,301.99 | -14,440.88 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -1,444 | -2,299.30 | -3,661.22 | -5,829.82 | -9,282.93 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -22,517.28 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.24 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -14,729.70 |
| Terminal Value | -203,448.83 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -130,781.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -153,298.91 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -101.35 |
| Equity Value | -153,197.56 |
| Shares Outstanding | 69.91 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2,191.22 |