Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB)

$10.18

+0.18 (+1.85%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -18.65 | 10.18 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,338.56	1,315.01	868.71	1,162.08	1,266.62	1,289	1,311.77	1,334.95	1,358.54	1,382.54
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	126.29	57.92	20.23	47.29	35.53	59.41	60.45	61.52	62.61	63.72
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-50.27	-57.31	-22.13	-42.26	-38.16	-44.63	-45.42	-46.22	-47.03	-47.87
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	76.02	0.61	-1.90	5.03	-2.63	14.78	15.04	15.31	15.58	15.85

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 10.18
Beta	2.903
Diluted Shares Outstanding	15.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-0.97
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	17.812
Total Debt	647.08
Total Equity	161.25
Total Capital	808.33
Debt Weighting	80.05
Equity Weighting	19.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,338.56	1,315.01	868.71	1,162.08	1,266.62	1,289	1,311.77	1,334.95	1,358.54	1,382.54
Operating Cash Flow	126.29	57.92	20.23	47.29	35.53	59.41	60.45	61.52	62.61	63.72
Capital Expenditure	-50.27	-57.31	-22.13	-42.26	-38.16	-44.63	-45.42	-46.22	-47.03	-47.87
Free Cash Flow	76.02	0.61	-1.90	5.03	-2.63	14.78	15.04	15.31	15.58	15.85
WACC
PV LFCF						13.83	13.18	12.55	11.95	11.39
SUM PV LFCF										62.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.84
Free cash flow (t + 1)	16.17
Terminal Value	334.05
Present Value of Terminal Value	239.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	302.86
Net Debt	598.25
Equity Value	-295.40
Shares Outstanding	15.84
Equity Value Per Share	-18.65