Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB)
$10.18
+0.18 (+1.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,338.56 | 1,315.01 | 868.71 | 1,162.08 | 1,266.62 | 1,289 | 1,311.77 | 1,334.95 | 1,358.54 | 1,382.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 126.29 | 57.92 | 20.23 | 47.29 | 35.53 | 59.41 | 60.45 | 61.52 | 62.61 | 63.72 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -50.27 | -57.31 | -22.13 | -42.26 | -38.16 | -44.63 | -45.42 | -46.22 | -47.03 | -47.87 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 76.02 | 0.61 | -1.90 | 5.03 | -2.63 | 14.78 | 15.04 | 15.31 | 15.58 | 15.85 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 10.18 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.903 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15.84 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -0.97 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 17.812 |
Total Debt | 647.08 |
Total Equity | 161.25 |
Total Capital | 808.33 |
Debt Weighting | 80.05 |
Equity Weighting | 19.95 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,338.56 | 1,315.01 | 868.71 | 1,162.08 | 1,266.62 | 1,289 | 1,311.77 | 1,334.95 | 1,358.54 | 1,382.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 126.29 | 57.92 | 20.23 | 47.29 | 35.53 | 59.41 | 60.45 | 61.52 | 62.61 | 63.72 |
Capital Expenditure | -50.27 | -57.31 | -22.13 | -42.26 | -38.16 | -44.63 | -45.42 | -46.22 | -47.03 | -47.87 |
Free Cash Flow | 76.02 | 0.61 | -1.90 | 5.03 | -2.63 | 14.78 | 15.04 | 15.31 | 15.58 | 15.85 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 13.83 | 13.18 | 12.55 | 11.95 | 11.39 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 62.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.84 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 16.17 |
Terminal Value | 334.05 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 239.96 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 302.86 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 598.25 |
Equity Value | -295.40 |
Shares Outstanding | 15.84 |
Equity Value Per Share | -18.65 |