Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Origin Agritech Limited (SEED)
$4.72
-0.62 (-11.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2.07 | 14.79 | 8.40 | 7.43 | 8.41 | 20.48 | 49.84 | 121.30 | 295.23 | 718.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.61 | -9.62 | -0.90 | -4.01 | 0.53 | -8.24 | -20.05 | -48.81 | -118.80 | -289.15 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.48 | -3.41 | -1.94 | -1.71 | -1.94 | -4.72 | -11.50 | -27.98 | -68.10 | -165.76 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.08 | -13.03 | -2.84 | -5.73 | -1.41 | -12.96 | -31.55 | -76.79 | -186.91 | -454.91 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.72 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.216 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5.62 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 371.09 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -16.02% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.377 |
| Total Debt | 22.28 |
| Total Equity | 26.51 |
| Total Capital | 48.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 45.67 |
| Equity Weighting | 54.33 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2.07 | 14.79 | 8.40 | 7.43 | 8.41 | 20.48 | 49.84 | 121.30 | 295.23 | 718.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.61 | -9.62 | -0.90 | -4.01 | 0.53 | -8.24 | -20.05 | -48.81 | -118.80 | -289.15 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.48 | -3.41 | -1.94 | -1.71 | -1.94 | -4.72 | -11.50 | -27.98 | -68.10 | -165.76 |
| Free Cash Flow | -2.08 | -13.03 | -2.84 | -5.73 | -1.41 | -12.96 | -31.55 | -76.79 | -186.91 | -454.91 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -13.26 | -33 | -82.14 | -204.47 | -508.95 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -841.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -2.22 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -464.01 |
| Terminal Value | 10,995.50 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,301.69 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 11,459.87 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 19.46 |
| Equity Value | 11,440.42 |
| Shares Outstanding | 5.62 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2,036.59 |