Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)
$3.81
-0.07 (-1.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,770.69 | 7,794 | 8,040 | 8,696 | 9,003 | 10,126.30 | 11,389.74 | 12,810.83 | 14,409.23 | 16,207.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,880.42 | 2,017 | 2,018 | 1,998 | 1,976 | 2,602.22 | 2,926.90 | 3,292.09 | 3,702.84 | 4,164.84 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -355.70 | -363 | -350 | -388 | -426 | -493.52 | -555.10 | -624.35 | -702.25 | -789.87 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,524.72 | 1,654 | 1,668 | 1,610 | 1,550 | 2,108.70 | 2,371.80 | 2,667.73 | 3,000.58 | 3,374.96 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.81 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.960 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,990 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.42 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.25% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.277 |
| Total Debt | 9,822 |
| Total Equity | 15,201.90 |
| Total Capital | 25,023.90 |
| Debt Weighting | 39.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,770.69 | 7,794 | 8,040 | 8,696 | 9,003 | 10,126.30 | 11,389.74 | 12,810.83 | 14,409.23 | 16,207.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,880.42 | 2,017 | 2,018 | 1,998 | 1,976 | 2,602.22 | 2,926.90 | 3,292.09 | 3,702.84 | 4,164.84 |
| Capital Expenditure | -355.70 | -363 | -350 | -388 | -426 | -493.52 | -555.10 | -624.35 | -702.25 | -789.87 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,524.72 | 1,654 | 1,668 | 1,610 | 1,550 | 2,108.70 | 2,371.80 | 2,667.73 | 3,000.58 | 3,374.96 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,866.16 | 1,974.60 | 2,089.34 | 2,210.75 | 2,339.21 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 11,140.30 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.30 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,442.46 |
| Terminal Value | 80,057.24 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 58,984.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 70,124.31 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 9,765 |
| Equity Value | 60,359.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,990 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 15.13 |