Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

$3.81

-0.07 (-1.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.13 | 3.81 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,770.697,7948,0408,6969,00310,126.3011,389.7412,810.8314,409.2316,207.05
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,880.422,0172,0181,9981,9762,602.222,926.903,292.093,702.844,164.84
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -355.70-363-350-388-426-493.52-555.10-624.35-702.25-789.87
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 1,524.721,6541,6681,6101,5502,108.702,371.802,667.733,000.583,374.96

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.81
Beta 0.960
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,990
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.277
Total Debt 9,822
Total Equity 15,201.90
Total Capital 25,023.90
Debt Weighting 39.25
Equity Weighting 60.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,770.697,7948,0408,6969,00310,126.3011,389.7412,810.8314,409.2316,207.05
Operating Cash Flow 1,880.422,0172,0181,9981,9762,602.222,926.903,292.093,702.844,164.84
Capital Expenditure -355.70-363-350-388-426-493.52-555.10-624.35-702.25-789.87
Free Cash Flow 1,524.721,6541,6681,6101,5502,108.702,371.802,667.733,000.583,374.96
WACC
PV LFCF 1,866.161,974.602,089.342,210.752,339.21
SUM PV LFCF 11,140.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,442.46
Terminal Value 80,057.24
Present Value of Terminal Value 58,984.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 70,124.31
Net Debt 9,765
Equity Value 60,359.31
Shares Outstanding 3,990
Equity Value Per Share 15.13