Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG)

$34.27

+0.43 (+1.27%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 22.13 | 34.27 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	350.99	405.95	483.41	562.16	657.34	769.03	899.69	1,052.55	1,231.38	1,440.60
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	197.77	233.36	293.92	336.15	387.93	451.33	528.02	617.73	722.68	845.47
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-110.29	-205.62	-110.84	-160.38	-219.44	-256.72	-300.34	-351.37	-411.07	-480.91
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	87.48	27.74	183.08	175.77	168.49	194.61	227.67	266.36	311.61	364.55

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 34.27
Beta	1.021
Diluted Shares Outstanding	178.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	222.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.630
Total Debt	35.10
Total Equity	6,132.27
Total Capital	6,167.37
Debt Weighting	0.57
Equity Weighting	99.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	350.99	405.95	483.41	562.16	657.34	769.03	899.69	1,052.55	1,231.38	1,440.60
Operating Cash Flow	197.77	233.36	293.92	336.15	387.93	451.33	528.02	617.73	722.68	845.47
Capital Expenditure	-110.29	-205.62	-110.84	-160.38	-219.44	-256.72	-300.34	-351.37	-411.07	-480.91
Free Cash Flow	87.48	27.74	183.08	175.77	168.49	194.61	227.67	266.36	311.61	364.55
WACC
PV LFCF						161.27	171.76	182.92	194.81	207.47
SUM PV LFCF										1,008.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	371.85
Terminal Value	4,736.88
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,961.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,970.05
Net Debt	9.22
Equity Value	3,960.83
Shares Outstanding	178.94
Equity Value Per Share	22.13