Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
$37.94
+0.20 (+0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 32,051 | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 39,132 | 43,312.22 | 47,938.98 | 53,059.99 | 58,728.04 | 65,001.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 8,966 | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 10,699.10 | 11,842.02 | 13,107.03 | 14,507.16 | 16,056.87 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6,551 | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -6,628.50 | -7,336.58 | -8,120.30 | -8,987.74 | -9,947.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2,415 | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 4,070.61 | 4,505.44 | 4,986.73 | 5,519.43 | 6,109.03 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 37.94 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.990 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,526 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.05 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.247 |
| Total Debt | 18,354 |
| Total Equity | 57,896.44 |
| Total Capital | 76,250.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.07 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.93 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 32,051 | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 39,132 | 43,312.22 | 47,938.98 | 53,059.99 | 58,728.04 | 65,001.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 8,966 | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 10,699.10 | 11,842.02 | 13,107.03 | 14,507.16 | 16,056.87 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6,551 | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -6,628.50 | -7,336.58 | -8,120.30 | -8,987.74 | -9,947.84 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,415 | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 4,070.61 | 4,505.44 | 4,986.73 | 5,519.43 | 6,109.03 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 3,682.81 | 3,687.88 | 3,692.97 | 3,698.06 | 3,703.15 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 18,464.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,231.21 |
| Terminal Value | 73,050.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 44,281.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 62,746.41 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 16,149 |
| Equity Value | 46,597.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,526 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 30.54 |