Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

$37.94

+0.20 (+0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 30.54 | 37.94 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 32,05138,54238,34424,66239,13243,312.2247,938.9853,059.9958,728.0465,001.57
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 8,96610,58010,4212,67511,76410,699.1011,842.0213,107.0314,507.1616,056.87
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,551-5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-6,628.50-7,336.58-8,120.30-8,987.74-9,947.84
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 2,4155,1744,863-1,2517,2094,070.614,505.444,986.735,519.436,109.03

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.94
Beta 1.990
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,526
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.247
Total Debt 18,354
Total Equity 57,896.44
Total Capital 76,250.44
Debt Weighting 24.07
Equity Weighting 75.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 32,05138,54238,34424,66239,13243,312.2247,938.9853,059.9958,728.0465,001.57
Operating Cash Flow 8,96610,58010,4212,67511,76410,699.1011,842.0213,107.0314,507.1616,056.87
Capital Expenditure -6,551-5,406-5,558-3,926-4,555-6,628.50-7,336.58-8,120.30-8,987.74-9,947.84
Free Cash Flow 2,4155,1744,863-1,2517,2094,070.614,505.444,986.735,519.436,109.03
WACC
PV LFCF 3,682.813,687.883,692.973,698.063,703.15
SUM PV LFCF 18,464.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,231.21
Terminal Value 73,050.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 44,281.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 62,746.41
Net Debt 16,149
Equity Value 46,597.41
Shares Outstanding 1,526
Equity Value Per Share 30.54