Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
$37.94
+0.20 (+0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 32,051 | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 39,132 | 43,312.22 | 47,938.98 | 53,059.99 | 58,728.04 | 65,001.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 8,966 | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 10,699.10 | 11,842.02 | 13,107.03 | 14,507.16 | 16,056.87 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -6,551 | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -6,628.50 | -7,336.58 | -8,120.30 | -8,987.74 | -9,947.84 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 2,415 | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 4,070.61 | 4,505.44 | 4,986.73 | 5,519.43 | 6,109.03 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 37.94 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.990 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,526 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.05 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.10% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.247 |
Total Debt | 18,354 |
Total Equity | 57,896.44 |
Total Capital | 76,250.44 |
Debt Weighting | 24.07 |
Equity Weighting | 75.93 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 32,051 | 38,542 | 38,344 | 24,662 | 39,132 | 43,312.22 | 47,938.98 | 53,059.99 | 58,728.04 | 65,001.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 8,966 | 10,580 | 10,421 | 2,675 | 11,764 | 10,699.10 | 11,842.02 | 13,107.03 | 14,507.16 | 16,056.87 |
Capital Expenditure | -6,551 | -5,406 | -5,558 | -3,926 | -4,555 | -6,628.50 | -7,336.58 | -8,120.30 | -8,987.74 | -9,947.84 |
Free Cash Flow | 2,415 | 5,174 | 4,863 | -1,251 | 7,209 | 4,070.61 | 4,505.44 | 4,986.73 | 5,519.43 | 6,109.03 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 3,682.81 | 3,687.88 | 3,692.97 | 3,698.06 | 3,703.15 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 18,464.86 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.53 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,231.21 |
Terminal Value | 73,050.57 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 44,281.55 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 62,746.41 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 16,149 |
Equity Value | 46,597.41 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,526 |
Equity Value Per Share | 30.54 |