Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

TimkenSteel Corporation (TMST)

$18.38

+1.31 (+7.67%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 26.69 | 18.38 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,610.60	1,208.80	830.70	1,282.90	1,329.90	1,336.13	1,342.39	1,348.67	1,354.99	1,361.34
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	18.50	70.30	173.50	196.90	134.50	142.46	143.13	143.80	144.47	145.15
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-40	-38	-16.90	-12.20	-27.10	-28.46	-28.59	-28.73	-28.86	-29
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-21.50	32.30	156.60	184.70	107.40	114	114.54	115.07	115.61	116.15

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 18.38
Beta	1.716
Diluted Shares Outstanding	51.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	32.96
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.22%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.791
Total Debt	32.90
Total Equity	946.57
Total Capital	979.47
Debt Weighting	3.36
Equity Weighting	96.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,610.60	1,208.80	830.70	1,282.90	1,329.90	1,336.13	1,342.39	1,348.67	1,354.99	1,361.34
Operating Cash Flow	18.50	70.30	173.50	196.90	134.50	142.46	143.13	143.80	144.47	145.15
Capital Expenditure	-40	-38	-16.90	-12.20	-27.10	-28.46	-28.59	-28.73	-28.86	-29
Free Cash Flow	-21.50	32.30	156.60	184.70	107.40	114	114.54	115.07	115.61	116.15
WACC
PV LFCF						102.30	92.23	83.15	74.96	67.58
SUM PV LFCF										420.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.44
Free cash flow (t + 1)	118.48
Terminal Value	1,255.05
Present Value of Terminal Value	730.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,150.44
Net Debt	-224.30
Equity Value	1,374.74
Shares Outstanding	51.50
Equity Value Per Share	26.69