Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
$47.68
+0.87 (+1.86%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,815.06 | 7,143.26 | 7,223.97 | 7,077.66 | 8,790.36 | 9,804.42 | 10,935.45 | 12,196.97 | 13,604.01 | 15,173.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 959.72 | 602.40 | 437.66 | 1,008.12 | 1,303.13 | 1,177.78 | 1,313.65 | 1,465.19 | 1,634.22 | 1,822.74 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.71 | -0.97 | 2.42 | 0.70 | -66.88 | -14.57 | -16.26 | -18.13 | -20.22 | -22.55 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 959.01 | 601.44 | 440.08 | 1,008.81 | 1,236.25 | 1,163.21 | 1,297.39 | 1,447.06 | 1,613.99 | 1,800.18 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 47.68 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.587 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 125.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.79% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.279 |
| Total Debt | 3,795.53 |
| Total Equity | 5,998.48 |
| Total Capital | 9,794.01 |
| Debt Weighting | 38.75 |
| Equity Weighting | 61.25 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,815.06 | 7,143.26 | 7,223.97 | 7,077.66 | 8,790.36 | 9,804.42 | 10,935.45 | 12,196.97 | 13,604.01 | 15,173.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 959.72 | 602.40 | 437.66 | 1,008.12 | 1,303.13 | 1,177.78 | 1,313.65 | 1,465.19 | 1,634.22 | 1,822.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.71 | -0.97 | 2.42 | 0.70 | -66.88 | -14.57 | -16.26 | -18.13 | -20.22 | -22.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | 959.01 | 601.44 | 440.08 | 1,008.81 | 1,236.25 | 1,163.21 | 1,297.39 | 1,447.06 | 1,613.99 | 1,800.18 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,079.44 | 1,117.27 | 1,156.42 | 1,196.94 | 1,238.88 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 5,788.94 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,836.19 |
| Terminal Value | 31,878.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 21,938.49 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 27,727.43 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,157.04 |
| Equity Value | 25,570.39 |
| Shares Outstanding | 125.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 203.25 |