Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO)
$58.17
-1.56 (-2.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,161.66 | 2,137.20 | 2,144.07 | 5,121.60 | 8,677.65 | 13,179.07 | 20,015.54 | 30,398.35 | 46,167.11 | 70,115.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,269.49 | 1,174.93 | 1,125.14 | 2,847.12 | 4,692.73 | 7,270.84 | 11,042.50 | 16,770.65 | 25,470.21 | 38,682.56 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,209.63 | -1,241.59 | -1,077.23 | -1,982.93 | -1,950.84 | -5,943.57 | -9,026.72 | -13,709.22 | -20,820.70 | -31,621.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.86 | -66.66 | 47.91 | 864.19 | 2,741.89 | 1,327.27 | 2,015.77 | 3,061.43 | 4,649.51 | 7,061.39 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 58.17 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.603 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 342.53 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.03 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.259 |
| Total Debt | 629.26 |
| Total Equity | 19,925.15 |
| Total Capital | 20,554.41 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.06 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.94 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,161.66 | 2,137.20 | 2,144.07 | 5,121.60 | 8,677.65 | 13,179.07 | 20,015.54 | 30,398.35 | 46,167.11 | 70,115.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,269.49 | 1,174.93 | 1,125.14 | 2,847.12 | 4,692.73 | 7,270.84 | 11,042.50 | 16,770.65 | 25,470.21 | 38,682.56 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,209.63 | -1,241.59 | -1,077.23 | -1,982.93 | -1,950.84 | -5,943.57 | -9,026.72 | -13,709.22 | -20,820.70 | -31,621.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | 59.86 | -66.66 | 47.91 | 864.19 | 2,741.89 | 1,327.27 | 2,015.77 | 3,061.43 | 4,649.51 | 7,061.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,195.52 | 1,635.46 | 2,237.28 | 3,060.57 | 4,186.82 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 12,315.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.02 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 7,202.61 |
| Terminal Value | 79,851.60 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 47,345.37 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 59,661.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 629.26 |
| Equity Value | 59,031.76 |
| Shares Outstanding | 342.53 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 172.34 |