Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

$43.55

-0.66 (-1.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -263.42 | 43.55 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37,73641,30343,25915,35524,63425,256.8425,895.4426,550.1827,221.4727,909.73
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 3,4136,1816,909-4,1332,0671,083.781,111.181,139.281,168.081,197.62
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,998-4,177-4,528-1,727-2,107-2,574.95-2,640.05-2,706.81-2,775.24-2,845.41
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -5852,0042,381-5,860-40-1,491.17-1,528.87-1,567.53-1,607.16-1,647.80

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 43.55
Beta 1.223
Diluted Shares Outstanding 311.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.558
Total Debt 39,366
Total Equity 13,580.86
Total Capital 52,946.86
Debt Weighting 74.35
Equity Weighting 25.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37,73641,30343,25915,35524,63425,256.8425,895.4426,550.1827,221.4727,909.73
Operating Cash Flow 3,4136,1816,909-4,1332,0671,083.781,111.181,139.281,168.081,197.62
Capital Expenditure -3,998-4,177-4,528-1,727-2,107-2,574.95-2,640.05-2,706.81-2,775.24-2,845.41
Free Cash Flow -5852,0042,381-5,860-40-1,491.17-1,528.87-1,567.53-1,607.16-1,647.80
WACC
PV LFCF -1,427.09-1,400.30-1,374.01-1,348.22-1,322.91
SUM PV LFCF -6,872.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,680.75
Terminal Value -67,500.04
Present Value of Terminal Value -54,191.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -61,063.94
Net Debt 21,083
Equity Value -82,146.94
Shares Outstanding 311.85
Equity Value Per Share -263.42