Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

$28.91

+0.18 (+0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 129.14 | 28.91 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,052.741,070.171,201.161,068.631,066.191,073.211,080.281,087.401,094.561,101.77
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 170.09110.1093.7541.4329.9287.8688.4489.0289.6190.20
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.16-33.05-32.43-18.86-13.98-22.52-22.67-22.82-22.97-23.12
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 152.9477.0561.3322.5715.9465.3465.7766.2066.6467.08

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.91
Beta 0.047
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.874
Total Debt 50
Total Equity 724.35
Total Capital 774.35
Debt Weighting 6.46
Equity Weighting 93.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,052.741,070.171,201.161,068.631,066.191,073.211,080.281,087.401,094.561,101.77
Operating Cash Flow 170.09110.1093.7541.4329.9287.8688.4489.0289.6190.20
Capital Expenditure -17.16-33.05-32.43-18.86-13.98-22.52-22.67-22.82-22.97-23.12
Free Cash Flow 152.9477.0561.3322.5715.9465.3465.7766.2066.6467.08
WACC
PV LFCF 62.8460.8458.9057.0355.21
SUM PV LFCF 294.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 68.42
Terminal Value 3,473
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,858.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,153.50
Net Debt -82.10
Equity Value 3,235.60
Shares Outstanding 25.06
Equity Value Per Share 129.14