Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
$232.19
+4.30 (+1.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,240 | 22,832 | 21,708 | 19,533 | 21,804 | 22,031.82 | 22,262.03 | 22,494.64 | 22,729.68 | 22,967.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 7,230 | 8,686 | 8,609 | 8,540 | 9,032 | 8,675.49 | 8,766.13 | 8,857.73 | 8,950.28 | 9,043.80 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,238 | -3,437 | -3,453 | -2,927 | -2,936 | -3,289.58 | -3,323.95 | -3,358.68 | -3,393.78 | -3,429.24 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3,992 | 5,249 | 5,156 | 5,613 | 6,096 | 5,385.91 | 5,442.18 | 5,499.05 | 5,556.51 | 5,614.56 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 232.19 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.175 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 679.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.06 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.82% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.516 |
| Total Debt | 31,488 |
| Total Equity | 157,680.23 |
| Total Capital | 189,168.23 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.65 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.35 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,240 | 22,832 | 21,708 | 19,533 | 21,804 | 22,031.82 | 22,262.03 | 22,494.64 | 22,729.68 | 22,967.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 7,230 | 8,686 | 8,609 | 8,540 | 9,032 | 8,675.49 | 8,766.13 | 8,857.73 | 8,950.28 | 9,043.80 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,238 | -3,437 | -3,453 | -2,927 | -2,936 | -3,289.58 | -3,323.95 | -3,358.68 | -3,393.78 | -3,429.24 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,992 | 5,249 | 5,156 | 5,613 | 6,096 | 5,385.91 | 5,442.18 | 5,499.05 | 5,556.51 | 5,614.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 4,326.98 | 4,064.51 | 3,817.96 | 3,586.37 | 3,368.82 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 22,176 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.57 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5,726.86 |
| Terminal Value | 102,816.08 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 71,384.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 93,560.70 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 30,528 |
| Equity Value | 63,032.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 679.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 92.82 |