Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

$232.19

+4.30 (+1.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 92.82 | 232.19 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,24022,83221,70819,53321,80422,031.8222,262.0322,494.6422,729.6822,967.18
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 7,2308,6868,6098,5409,0328,675.498,766.138,857.738,950.289,043.80
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,238-3,437-3,453-2,927-2,936-3,289.58-3,323.95-3,358.68-3,393.78-3,429.24
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 3,9925,2495,1565,6136,0965,385.915,442.185,499.055,556.515,614.56

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 232.19
Beta 1.175
Diluted Shares Outstanding 679.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.516
Total Debt 31,488
Total Equity 157,680.23
Total Capital 189,168.23
Debt Weighting 16.65
Equity Weighting 83.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,24022,83221,70819,53321,80422,031.8222,262.0322,494.6422,729.6822,967.18
Operating Cash Flow 7,2308,6868,6098,5409,0328,675.498,766.138,857.738,950.289,043.80
Capital Expenditure -3,238-3,437-3,453-2,927-2,936-3,289.58-3,323.95-3,358.68-3,393.78-3,429.24
Free Cash Flow 3,9925,2495,1565,6136,0965,385.915,442.185,499.055,556.515,614.56
WACC
PV LFCF 4,326.984,064.513,817.963,586.373,368.82
SUM PV LFCF 22,176

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,726.86
Terminal Value 102,816.08
Present Value of Terminal Value 71,384.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 93,560.70
Net Debt 30,528
Equity Value 63,032.70
Shares Outstanding 679.10
Equity Value Per Share 92.82