Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
$199.265
-1.73 (-0.86%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 19,533 | 21,804 | 24,875 | 6,056 | 5,047.81 | 4,207.47 | 3,507.02 | 2,923.18 | 2,436.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 8,540 | 9,532.90 | 10,875.57 | 2,647.74 | 2,206.95 | 1,839.54 | 1,533.30 | 1,278.04 | 1,065.27 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | |||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,927 | -3,267.31 | -3,727.49 | -907.49 | -756.41 | -630.48 | -525.52 | -438.04 | -365.11 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | |||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 5,613 | 6,265.59 | 7,148.08 | 1,740.25 | 1,450.54 | 1,209.06 | 1,007.78 | 840 | 700.16 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 199.265 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.105 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 624 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 23.90 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.68% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.966 |
Total Debt | 3,825 |
Total Equity | 124,341.36 |
Total Capital | 128,166.36 |
Debt Weighting | 2.98 |
Equity Weighting | 97.02 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 19,533 | 21,804 | 24,875 | 6,056 | 5,047.81 | 4,207.47 | 3,507.02 | 2,923.18 | 2,436.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 8,540 | 9,532.90 | 10,875.57 | 2,647.74 | 2,206.95 | 1,839.54 | 1,533.30 | 1,278.04 | 1,065.27 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,927 | -3,267.31 | -3,727.49 | -907.49 | -756.41 | -630.48 | -525.52 | -438.04 | -365.11 |
Free Cash Flow | 5,613 | 6,265.59 | 7,148.08 | 1,740.25 | 1,450.54 | 1,209.06 | 1,007.78 | 840 | 700.16 |
WACC | |||||||||
PV LFCF | 1,450.54 | 1,110.25 | 849.78 | 650.43 | 497.84 | ||||
SUM PV LFCF | 4,186.25 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.90 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 714.17 |
Terminal Value | 10,350.23 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,757.88 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 10,944.14 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,746 |
Equity Value | 8,198.14 |
Shares Outstanding | 624 |
Equity Value Per Share | 13.14 |