Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

$199.265

-1.73 (-0.86%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 13.14 | 199.265 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	19,533	21,804	24,875	6,056	5,047.81	4,207.47	3,507.02	2,923.18	2,436.54
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	8,540	9,532.90	10,875.57	2,647.74	2,206.95	1,839.54	1,533.30	1,278.04	1,065.27
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,927	-3,267.31	-3,727.49	-907.49	-756.41	-630.48	-525.52	-438.04	-365.11
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	5,613	6,265.59	7,148.08	1,740.25	1,450.54	1,209.06	1,007.78	840	700.16

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 199.265
Beta	1.105
Diluted Shares Outstanding	624
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.90
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.966
Total Debt	3,825
Total Equity	124,341.36
Total Capital	128,166.36
Debt Weighting	2.98
Equity Weighting	97.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	19,533	21,804	24,875	6,056	5,047.81	4,207.47	3,507.02	2,923.18	2,436.54
Operating Cash Flow	8,540	9,532.90	10,875.57	2,647.74	2,206.95	1,839.54	1,533.30	1,278.04	1,065.27
Capital Expenditure	-2,927	-3,267.31	-3,727.49	-907.49	-756.41	-630.48	-525.52	-438.04	-365.11
Free Cash Flow	5,613	6,265.59	7,148.08	1,740.25	1,450.54	1,209.06	1,007.78	840	700.16
WACC
PV LFCF					1,450.54	1,110.25	849.78	650.43	497.84
SUM PV LFCF									4,186.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.90
Free cash flow (t + 1)	714.17
Terminal Value	10,350.23
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,757.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	10,944.14
Net Debt	2,746
Equity Value	8,198.14
Shares Outstanding	624
Equity Value Per Share	13.14