Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

$153.5288

-0.22 (-0.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 158.29 | 153.5288 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 71,86174,09484,62897,287100,338109,222.67118,894.05129,421.80140,881.77153,356.48
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 12,7118,63910,45915,00714,10415,550.8216,927.8018,426.7220,058.3521,834.47
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -6,283-6,380-5,412-4,194-4,769-7,167.82-7,802.51-8,493.41-9,245.48-10,064.14
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 6,4282,2595,04710,8139,3358,3839,125.299,933.3110,812.8811,770.33

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 153.5,288
Beta 1.088
Diluted Shares Outstanding 871
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.873
Total Debt 23,521
Total Equity 133,723.58
Total Capital 157,244.58
Debt Weighting 14.96
Equity Weighting 85.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 71,86174,09484,62897,287100,338109,222.67118,894.05129,421.80140,881.77153,356.48
Operating Cash Flow 12,7118,63910,45915,00714,10415,550.8216,927.8018,426.7220,058.3521,834.47
Capital Expenditure -6,283-6,380-5,412-4,194-4,769-7,167.82-7,802.51-8,493.41-9,245.48-10,064.14
Free Cash Flow 6,4282,2595,04710,8139,3358,3839,125.299,933.3110,812.8811,770.33
WACC
PV LFCF 7,709.217,717.357,725.497,733.647,741.80
SUM PV LFCF 38,627.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12,005.74
Terminal Value 178,126.64
Present Value of Terminal Value 117,160.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 155,788.26
Net Debt 17,919
Equity Value 137,869.26
Shares Outstanding 871
Equity Value Per Share 158.29