Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
$153.5288
-0.22 (-0.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 71,861 | 74,094 | 84,628 | 97,287 | 100,338 | 109,222.67 | 118,894.05 | 129,421.80 | 140,881.77 | 153,356.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 12,711 | 8,639 | 10,459 | 15,007 | 14,104 | 15,550.82 | 16,927.80 | 18,426.72 | 20,058.35 | 21,834.47 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6,283 | -6,380 | -5,412 | -4,194 | -4,769 | -7,167.82 | -7,802.51 | -8,493.41 | -9,245.48 | -10,064.14 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6,428 | 2,259 | 5,047 | 10,813 | 9,335 | 8,383 | 9,125.29 | 9,933.31 | 10,812.88 | 11,770.33 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 153.5,288 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.088 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 871 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.10 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.873 |
| Total Debt | 23,521 |
| Total Equity | 133,723.58 |
| Total Capital | 157,244.58 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.96 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.04 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 71,861 | 74,094 | 84,628 | 97,287 | 100,338 | 109,222.67 | 118,894.05 | 129,421.80 | 140,881.77 | 153,356.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 12,711 | 8,639 | 10,459 | 15,007 | 14,104 | 15,550.82 | 16,927.80 | 18,426.72 | 20,058.35 | 21,834.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6,283 | -6,380 | -5,412 | -4,194 | -4,769 | -7,167.82 | -7,802.51 | -8,493.41 | -9,245.48 | -10,064.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,428 | 2,259 | 5,047 | 10,813 | 9,335 | 8,383 | 9,125.29 | 9,933.31 | 10,812.88 | 11,770.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,709.21 | 7,717.35 | 7,725.49 | 7,733.64 | 7,741.80 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 38,627.48 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 12,005.74 |
| Terminal Value | 178,126.64 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 117,160.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 155,788.26 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 17,919 |
| Equity Value | 137,869.26 |
| Shares Outstanding | 871 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 158.29 |