Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

$167.39

-4.84 (-2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 123.49 | 167.39 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 65,87271,86174,09484,62897,287107,350.06118,454.02130,706.53144,226.40159,144.73
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,47912,7118,63910,45915,00712,748.3314,066.9815,522.0217,127.5718,899.19
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,227-6,283-6,380-5,412-4,194-7,728.14-8,527.51-9,409.57-10,382.87-11,456.84
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -3,7486,4282,2595,04710,8135,020.195,539.466,112.456,744.707,442.35

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 167.39
Beta 1.163
Diluted Shares Outstanding 871
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.342
Total Debt 25,528
Total Equity 145,796.69
Total Capital 171,324.69
Debt Weighting 14.90
Equity Weighting 85.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 65,87271,86174,09484,62897,287107,350.06118,454.02130,706.53144,226.40159,144.73
Operating Cash Flow 1,47912,7118,63910,45915,00712,748.3314,066.9815,522.0217,127.5718,899.19
Capital Expenditure -5,227-6,283-6,380-5,412-4,194-7,728.14-8,527.51-9,409.57-10,382.87-11,456.84
Free Cash Flow -3,7486,4282,2595,04710,8135,020.195,539.466,112.456,744.707,442.35
WACC
PV LFCF 3,511.533,607.443,705.973,807.193,911.18
SUM PV LFCF 24,681.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,591.20
Terminal Value 140,317.91
Present Value of Terminal Value 98,149.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 122,831.03
Net Debt 15,273
Equity Value 107,558.03
Shares Outstanding 871
Equity Value Per Share 123.49