Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
$167.39
-4.84 (-2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 65,872 | 71,861 | 74,094 | 84,628 | 97,287 | 107,350.06 | 118,454.02 | 130,706.53 | 144,226.40 | 159,144.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,479 | 12,711 | 8,639 | 10,459 | 15,007 | 12,748.33 | 14,066.98 | 15,522.02 | 17,127.57 | 18,899.19 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5,227 | -6,283 | -6,380 | -5,412 | -4,194 | -7,728.14 | -8,527.51 | -9,409.57 | -10,382.87 | -11,456.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3,748 | 6,428 | 2,259 | 5,047 | 10,813 | 5,020.19 | 5,539.46 | 6,112.45 | 6,744.70 | 7,442.35 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 167.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.163 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 871 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.342 |
| Total Debt | 25,528 |
| Total Equity | 145,796.69 |
| Total Capital | 171,324.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.90 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.10 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 65,872 | 71,861 | 74,094 | 84,628 | 97,287 | 107,350.06 | 118,454.02 | 130,706.53 | 144,226.40 | 159,144.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,479 | 12,711 | 8,639 | 10,459 | 15,007 | 12,748.33 | 14,066.98 | 15,522.02 | 17,127.57 | 18,899.19 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5,227 | -6,283 | -6,380 | -5,412 | -4,194 | -7,728.14 | -8,527.51 | -9,409.57 | -10,382.87 | -11,456.84 |
| Free Cash Flow | -3,748 | 6,428 | 2,259 | 5,047 | 10,813 | 5,020.19 | 5,539.46 | 6,112.45 | 6,744.70 | 7,442.35 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 3,511.53 | 3,607.44 | 3,705.97 | 3,807.19 | 3,911.18 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 24,681.21 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.41 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 7,591.20 |
| Terminal Value | 140,317.91 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 98,149.83 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 122,831.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,273 |
| Equity Value | 107,558.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 871 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 123.49 |