Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

$20.79

-0.21 (-1.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -116,104.33 | 20.79 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 96.07163.82227.60841.441,904.914,312.469,762.8622,101.8450,035.69
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 50.3431.5815.70168.35469.481,062.832,406.125,447.1412,331.62
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.04-5.28-5.61-15.11-40.80-92.38-209.13-473.43-1,071.79
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 49.2926.3010.09153.24428.67970.462,196.994,973.7111,259.83

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.79
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.804
Total Debt 795.80
Total Equity 364.11
Total Capital 1,159.91
Debt Weighting 68.61
Equity Weighting 31.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 96.07163.82227.60841.441,904.914,312.469,762.8622,101.8450,035.69
Operating Cash Flow 50.3431.5815.70168.35469.481,062.832,406.125,447.1412,331.62
Capital Expenditure -1.04-5.28-5.61-15.11-40.80-92.38-209.13-473.43-1,071.79
Free Cash Flow 49.2926.3010.09153.24428.67970.462,196.994,973.7111,259.83
WACC
PV LFCF 428.67956.312,133.384,759.2510,617.20
SUM PV LFCF 18,619.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.48
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,485.03
Terminal Value -2,208,658.79
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,052,231.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,033,612.19
Net Debt -199.19
Equity Value -2,033,413
Shares Outstanding 17.51
Equity Value Per Share -116,104.33