Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Vale S.A. (VALE)

$16.7

-0.62 (-3.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 88.75 | 16.7 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 33,96736,57537,57040,01854,50261,738.2369,935.2279,220.5389,738.64101,653.25
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 12,45012,90112,11014,32225,67923,097.9726,164.6929,638.5733,573.6938,031.27
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,831-3,784-3,704-4,430-5,033-6,394.59-7,243.60-8,205.33-9,294.76-10,528.82
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 8,6199,1178,4069,89220,64616,703.3818,921.0821,433.2424,278.9327,502.45

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.7
Beta 0.763
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5,129.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.02
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.217
Total Debt 13,782
Total Equity 85,669.51
Total Capital 99,451.51
Debt Weighting 13.86
Equity Weighting 86.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 33,96736,57537,57040,01854,50261,738.2369,935.2279,220.5389,738.64101,653.25
Operating Cash Flow 12,45012,90112,11014,32225,67923,097.9726,164.6929,638.5733,573.6938,031.27
Capital Expenditure -3,831-3,784-3,704-4,430-5,033-6,394.59-7,243.60-8,205.33-9,294.76-10,528.82
Free Cash Flow 8,6199,1178,4069,89220,64616,703.3818,921.0821,433.2424,278.9327,502.45
WACC
PV LFCF 15,564.0916,42817,339.8718,302.3519,318.26
SUM PV LFCF 86,952.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28,052.50
Terminal Value 527,302.54
Present Value of Terminal Value 370,387.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 457,340.25
Net Debt 2,061
Equity Value 455,279.25
Shares Outstanding 5,129.91
Equity Value Per Share 88.75