Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)
$17.48
+0.12 (+0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 13,523.83 | 14,879.11 | 16,297.36 | 18,729.55 | 16,504.40 | 17,436.76 | 18,421.79 | 19,462.46 | 20,561.93 | 21,723.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 919.32 | 1,966.43 | 1,891.27 | 1,079.14 | 1,542.35 | 1,629.48 | 1,721.53 | 1,818.78 | 1,921.53 | 2,030.08 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -574.89 | -684.43 | -363.50 | -572.58 | -583.36 | -616.32 | -651.14 | -687.92 | -726.78 | -767.84 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 344.43 | 1,282 | 1,527.77 | 506.56 | 958.98 | 1,013.16 | 1,070.39 | 1,130.86 | 1,194.75 | 1,262.24 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.48 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.437 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 693.73 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.51% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.809 |
| Total Debt | 585.09 |
| Total Equity | 12,126.31 |
| Total Capital | 12,711.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 13,523.83 | 14,879.11 | 16,297.36 | 18,729.55 | 16,504.40 | 17,436.76 | 18,421.79 | 19,462.46 | 20,561.93 | 21,723.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 919.32 | 1,966.43 | 1,891.27 | 1,079.14 | 1,542.35 | 1,629.48 | 1,721.53 | 1,818.78 | 1,921.53 | 2,030.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -574.89 | -684.43 | -363.50 | -572.58 | -583.36 | -616.32 | -651.14 | -687.92 | -726.78 | -767.84 |
| Free Cash Flow | 344.43 | 1,282 | 1,527.77 | 506.56 | 958.98 | 1,013.16 | 1,070.39 | 1,130.86 | 1,194.75 | 1,262.24 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 959.70 | 960.42 | 961.14 | 961.86 | 962.58 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 4,805.72 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.57 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,287.48 |
| Terminal Value | 36,063.97 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 27,502.42 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 32,308.14 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -2,925.10 |
| Equity Value | 35,233.24 |
| Shares Outstanding | 693.73 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 50.79 |