Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Vistra Corp. (VST)

$33.22

-0.23 (-0.69%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 60.52 | 33.22 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,144	11,809	11,443	12,077	13,728	15,281.21	17,010.14	18,934.70	21,077	23,461.68
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	1,471	2,736	3,337	-206	485	2,146.86	2,389.75	2,660.13	2,961.11	3,296.13
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-496	-609	-1,259	-1,033	-1,301	-1,210.71	-1,347.69	-1,500.17	-1,669.90	-1,858.83
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	975	2,127	2,078	-1,239	-816	936.15	1,042.07	1,159.97	1,291.21	1,437.30

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 33.22
Beta	0.980
Diluted Shares Outstanding	389.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.44
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.065
Total Debt	13,336
Total Equity	12,947.66
Total Capital	26,283.66
Debt Weighting	50.74
Equity Weighting	49.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,144	11,809	11,443	12,077	13,728	15,281.21	17,010.14	18,934.70	21,077	23,461.68
Operating Cash Flow	1,471	2,736	3,337	-206	485	2,146.86	2,389.75	2,660.13	2,961.11	3,296.13
Capital Expenditure	-496	-609	-1,259	-1,033	-1,301	-1,210.71	-1,347.69	-1,500.17	-1,669.90	-1,858.83
Free Cash Flow	975	2,127	2,078	-1,239	-816	936.15	1,042.07	1,159.97	1,291.21	1,437.30
WACC
PV LFCF						886.93	935.36	986.44	1,040.31	1,097.12
SUM PV LFCF										4,946.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.55
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,466.04
Terminal Value	41,297.02
Present Value of Terminal Value	31,523

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	36,469.16
Net Debt	12,881
Equity Value	23,588.16
Shares Outstanding	389.75
Equity Value Per Share	60.52