Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Valvoline Inc. (VVV)
$33.51
+0.75 (+2.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 2,084 | 2,285 | 2,390 | 2,353 | 2,981 | 3,274.49 | 3,596.87 | 3,951 | 4,339.99 | 4,767.27 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | -130 | 320 | 325 | 372 | 404 | 332.21 | 364.92 | 400.84 | 440.31 | 483.66 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -68 | -93 | -108 | -151 | -144 | -151.28 | -166.17 | -182.53 | -200.51 | -220.25 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | -198 | 227 | 217 | 221 | 260 | 180.93 | 198.74 | 218.31 | 239.80 | 263.41 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 33.51 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.315 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 183 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.65 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.951 |
Total Debt | 1,968 |
Total Equity | 6,132.33 |
Total Capital | 8,100.33 |
Debt Weighting | 24.30 |
Equity Weighting | 75.70 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 2,084 | 2,285 | 2,390 | 2,353 | 2,981 | 3,274.49 | 3,596.87 | 3,951 | 4,339.99 | 4,767.27 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | -130 | 320 | 325 | 372 | 404 | 332.21 | 364.92 | 400.84 | 440.31 | 483.66 |
Capital Expenditure | -68 | -93 | -108 | -151 | -144 | -151.28 | -166.17 | -182.53 | -200.51 | -220.25 |
Free Cash Flow | -198 | 227 | 217 | 221 | 260 | 180.93 | 198.74 | 218.31 | 239.80 | 263.41 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 167.78 | 170.90 | 174.07 | 177.31 | 180.61 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 870.66 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.84 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 268.68 |
Terminal Value | 4,600.68 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,154.44 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,025.10 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,738 |
Equity Value | 2,287.10 |
Shares Outstanding | 183 |
Equity Value Per Share | 12.50 |