Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Valvoline Inc. (VVV)

$32.62

+0.50 (+1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.84 | 32.62 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,2852,3902,3532,9811,236.101,147.111,064.52987.88916.76850.76
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 320325372404284.20183.44170.23157.98146.60136.05
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -93-108-151-144-132-70.01-64.97-60.29-55.95-51.92
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 227217221260152.20113.43105.2697.6890.6584.12

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.62
Beta 1.348
Diluted Shares Outstanding 180.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.08
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.902
Total Debt 1,916.80
Total Equity 5,884.65
Total Capital 7,801.45
Debt Weighting 24.57
Equity Weighting 75.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,2852,3902,3532,9811,236.101,147.111,064.52987.88916.76850.76
Operating Cash Flow 320325372404284.20183.44170.23157.98146.60136.05
Capital Expenditure -93-108-151-144-132-70.01-64.97-60.29-55.95-51.92
Free Cash Flow 227217221260152.20113.43105.2697.6890.6584.12
WACC
PV LFCF 104.1688.7675.6464.4654.93
SUM PV LFCF 387.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 85.81
Terminal Value 1,243.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 811.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,199.90
Net Debt 1,893.40
Equity Value -693.50
Shares Outstanding 180.40
Equity Value Per Share -3.84