Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

$6.21

-0.01 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -221,577.62 | 6.21 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 252,813435,820678,5951,113,213.461,826,191.202,995,808.444,914,528.248,062,126.9013,225,662.1621,696,277.15
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 71,974125,058217,137209,216400,014778,073.291,276,404.422,093,900.763,434,977.445,634,970.99
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -59,618-88,293-161,455-114,616-234,801-543,959.87-892,348.83-1,463,869.81-2,401,431.75-3,939,472.23
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 12,35636,76555,68294,600165,213234,113.41384,055.59630,030.951,033,545.691,695,498.75

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.21
Beta 2.147
Diluted Shares Outstanding 392.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 99.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.940
Total Debt 812,837
Total Equity 2,436.20
Total Capital 815,273.20
Debt Weighting 99.70
Equity Weighting 0.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 252,813435,820678,5951,113,213.461,826,191.202,995,808.444,914,528.248,062,126.9013,225,662.1621,696,277.15
Operating Cash Flow 71,974125,058217,137209,216400,014778,073.291,276,404.422,093,900.763,434,977.445,634,970.99
Capital Expenditure -59,618-88,293-161,455-114,616-234,801-543,959.87-892,348.83-1,463,869.81-2,401,431.75-3,939,472.23
Free Cash Flow 12,35636,76555,68294,600165,213234,113.41384,055.59630,030.951,033,545.691,695,498.75
WACC
PV LFCF 94,685.14165,213233,902.90383,365.22628,332.921,029,833.281,687,889.57
SUM PV LFCF 3,963,323.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 0.09
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,729,408.73
Terminal Value -90,544,959.59
Present Value of Terminal Value -90,138,605.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -86,175,281.20
Net Debt 750,159
Equity Value -86,925,440.20
Shares Outstanding 392.30
Equity Value Per Share -221,577.62