Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)
$12.79
-0.15 (-1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 421,351 | 665,329 | 659,600 | 1,243,071 | 2,484,210.99 | 4,007,936.79 | 6,466,261.25 | 10,432,433.63 | 16,831,313.68 | 27,155,036.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 125,058 | 217,137 | 209,216 | 400,013.99 | 736,660 | 1,249,418.78 | 2,015,767.39 | 3,252,166.69 | 5,246,928.93 | 8,465,206.66 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -88,293 | -161,455 | -114,616 | -234,801 | -532,128.01 | -824,893.19 | -1,330,853.04 | -2,147,150.49 | -3,464,135.48 | -5,588,911.75 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 36,765 | 55,682 | 94,600 | 165,213 | 204,532 | 424,525.59 | 684,914.34 | 1,105,016.20 | 1,782,793.45 | 2,876,294.91 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.79 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.600 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 392.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.59 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.32% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.903 |
| Total Debt | 1,355,289 |
| Total Equity | 5,022.88 |
| Total Capital | 1,360,311.88 |
| Debt Weighting | 99.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 421,351 | 665,329 | 659,600 | 1,243,071 | 2,484,210.99 | 4,007,936.79 | 6,466,261.25 | 10,432,433.63 | 16,831,313.68 | 27,155,036.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 125,058 | 217,137 | 209,216 | 400,013.99 | 736,660 | 1,249,418.78 | 2,015,767.39 | 3,252,166.69 | 5,246,928.93 | 8,465,206.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | -88,293 | -161,455 | -114,616 | -234,801 | -532,128.01 | -824,893.19 | -1,330,853.04 | -2,147,150.49 | -3,464,135.48 | -5,588,911.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | 36,765 | 55,682 | 94,600 | 165,213 | 204,532 | 424,525.59 | 684,914.34 | 1,105,016.20 | 1,782,793.45 | 2,876,294.91 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 395,496.17 | 594,446.92 | 893,478.02 | 1,342,933.99 | 2,018,484.68 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 5,244,839.78 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.34 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,933,820.81 |
| Terminal Value | 54,940,464.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 38,555,325.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 43,800,165.17 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,218,415 |
| Equity Value | 42,581,750.17 |
| Shares Outstanding | 392.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 108,427.91 |