Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aumann AG (AAG.DE)

13.2 €

+0.28 (+2.17%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 22.19 | 13.2 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	210.38	290.81	259.57	295.25	335.84	382.01	434.52	494.25	562.18	639.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	22.86	32.68	21.38	29.86	33.97	38.64	43.95	49.99	56.86	64.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	20.31	26.88	16.41	24.82	28.23	32.11	36.53	41.55	47.26	53.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2.55	5.80	4.98	5.04	5.74	6.53	7.42	8.44	9.60	10.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	110.62	109.02	80.44	69.79	72.82	127.11	144.59	164.46	187.07	212.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5.74	5.56	4.78	3.24	3.34	6.55	7.45	8.47	9.64	10.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	21.96	30.89	28.60	25.88	21.02	35.99	40.93	46.56	52.96	60.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-9.67	-6.32	-6.15	-8.99	-10.23	-11.63	-13.23	-15.05	-17.12	-19.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 13.2
Beta	2.055
Diluted Shares Outstanding	15.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	28.31
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.371
Total Debt	12.94
Total Equity	205.03
Total Capital	217.97
Debt Weighting	5.94
Equity Weighting	94.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	210.38	290.81	259.57	295.25	335.84	382.01	434.52	494.25	562.18	639.46
EBITDA	22.86	32.68	21.38	29.86	33.97	38.64	43.95	49.99	56.86	64.68
EBIT	20.31	26.88	16.41	24.82	28.23	32.11	36.53	41.55	47.26	53.76
Tax Rate	31.88%	28.78%	28.49%	29.36%	28.31%	29.36%	29.36%	29.36%	29.36%	29.36%
EBIAT	13.84	19.14	11.73	17.53	20.24	22.68	25.80	29.35	33.38	37.97
Depreciation	2.55	5.80	4.98	5.04	5.74	6.53	7.42	8.44	9.60	10.92
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	0.18	0.77	1.54	-0.10	-3.21	-0.90	-1.02	-1.16	-1.32
Accounts Payable	-	8.93	-2.30	-2.72	-4.86	14.96	4.95	5.63	6.40	7.28
Capital Expenditure	-9.67	-6.32	-6.15	-8.99	-4.08	-11.63	-13.23	-15.05	-17.12	-19.48
UFCF	6.72	27.74	9.04	12.41	10.79	29.33	24.04	27.34	31.10	35.37
WACC
PV UFCF				14	10.79	25.99	18.88	19.04	19.20	19.35
SUM PV UFCF										102.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	12.82
Free cash flow (t + 1)	36.08
Terminal Value	333.46
Present Value of Terminal Value	182.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	284.90
Net Debt	-59.81
Equity Value	344.72
Shares Outstanding	15.53
Equity Value Per Share	22.19