Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)
$225.47
+3.91 (+1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,874.40 | 7,210.30 | 7,131.80 | 9,837.70 | 15,433.90 | 19,239.29 | 23,982.93 | 29,896.17 | 37,267.37 | 46,456.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 348.30 | 368.30 | 432.30 | 833.70 | 1,341.60 | 1,285.31 | 1,602.22 | 1,997.26 | 2,489.70 | 3,103.57 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 314.60 | 332.10 | 393.80 | 791.80 | 1,272.60 | 1,192.77 | 1,486.85 | 1,853.45 | 2,310.44 | 2,880.10 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 33.70 | 36.20 | 38.50 | 41.90 | 69 | 92.54 | 115.36 | 143.81 | 179.26 | 223.46 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 8.30 | 3.50 | 1.40 | 189.40 | 240.70 | 141.36 | 176.21 | 219.66 | 273.82 | 341.33 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 343.30 | 348 | 337.40 | 469.50 | 446.20 | 854.79 | 1,065.55 | 1,328.27 | 1,655.77 | 2,064.02 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,067.60 | 985 | 875.20 | 718.40 | 959.20 | 2,115.56 | 2,637.18 | 3,287.40 | 4,097.94 | 5,108.33 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 81.90 | 81.70 | 97.60 | 163.90 | 147.40 | 242.96 | 302.86 | 377.53 | 470.62 | 586.65 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -57.90 | -66.80 | -48.80 | -82 | -107.90 | -153.36 | -191.17 | -238.31 | -297.07 | -370.31 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 225.47 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.126 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 22.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.40 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.29% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.942 |
Total Debt | 3,688.80 |
Total Equity | 5,050.53 |
Total Capital | 8,739.33 |
Debt Weighting | 42.21 |
Equity Weighting | 57.79 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,874.40 | 7,210.30 | 7,131.80 | 9,837.70 | 15,433.90 | 19,239.29 | 23,982.93 | 29,896.17 | 37,267.37 | 46,456.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 348.30 | 368.30 | 432.30 | 833.70 | 1,341.60 | 1,285.31 | 1,602.22 | 1,997.26 | 2,489.70 | 3,103.57 |
EBIT | 314.60 | 332.10 | 393.80 | 791.80 | 1,272.60 | 1,192.77 | 1,486.85 | 1,853.45 | 2,310.44 | 2,880.10 |
Tax Rate | 25.27% | 24.40% | 24.76% | 23.69% | 24.40% | 24.50% | 24.50% | 24.50% | 24.50% | 24.50% |
EBIAT | 235.11 | 251.08 | 296.31 | 604.21 | 962.14 | 900.52 | 1,122.56 | 1,399.34 | 1,744.36 | 2,174.45 |
Depreciation | 33.70 | 36.20 | 38.50 | 41.90 | 69 | 92.54 | 115.36 | 143.81 | 179.26 | 223.46 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -4.70 | 10.60 | -132.10 | 23.30 | -408.59 | -210.76 | -262.72 | -327.50 | -408.25 |
Inventories | - | 82.60 | 109.80 | 156.80 | -240.80 | -1,156.36 | -521.61 | -650.22 | -810.54 | -1,010.39 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.20 | 15.90 | 66.30 | -16.50 | 95.56 | 59.90 | 74.67 | 93.08 | 116.04 |
Capital Expenditure | -57.90 | -66.80 | -48.80 | -82 | -107.90 | -153.36 | -191.17 | -238.31 | -297.07 | -370.31 |
UFCF | 210.91 | 298.18 | 422.31 | 655.11 | 689.24 | -629.69 | 374.28 | 466.56 | 581.60 | 725 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -587.78 | 326.12 | 379.47 | 441.55 | 513.78 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,073.14 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.13 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 739.50 |
Terminal Value | 14,415.14 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 10,215.59 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 11,288.72 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,453.50 |
Equity Value | 7,835.22 |
Shares Outstanding | 22.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 349.79 |