Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)

$225.47

+3.91 (+1.76%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 349.79 | 225.47 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,874.40	7,210.30	7,131.80	9,837.70	15,433.90	19,239.29	23,982.93	29,896.17	37,267.37	46,456.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	348.30	368.30	432.30	833.70	1,341.60	1,285.31	1,602.22	1,997.26	2,489.70	3,103.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	314.60	332.10	393.80	791.80	1,272.60	1,192.77	1,486.85	1,853.45	2,310.44	2,880.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	33.70	36.20	38.50	41.90	69	92.54	115.36	143.81	179.26	223.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	8.30	3.50	1.40	189.40	240.70	141.36	176.21	219.66	273.82	341.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	343.30	348	337.40	469.50	446.20	854.79	1,065.55	1,328.27	1,655.77	2,064.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,067.60	985	875.20	718.40	959.20	2,115.56	2,637.18	3,287.40	4,097.94	5,108.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	81.90	81.70	97.60	163.90	147.40	242.96	302.86	377.53	470.62	586.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57.90	-66.80	-48.80	-82	-107.90	-153.36	-191.17	-238.31	-297.07	-370.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 225.47
Beta	1.126
Diluted Shares Outstanding	22.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.40
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.942
Total Debt	3,688.80
Total Equity	5,050.53
Total Capital	8,739.33
Debt Weighting	42.21
Equity Weighting	57.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,874.40	7,210.30	7,131.80	9,837.70	15,433.90	19,239.29	23,982.93	29,896.17	37,267.37	46,456.03
EBITDA	348.30	368.30	432.30	833.70	1,341.60	1,285.31	1,602.22	1,997.26	2,489.70	3,103.57
EBIT	314.60	332.10	393.80	791.80	1,272.60	1,192.77	1,486.85	1,853.45	2,310.44	2,880.10
Tax Rate	25.27%	24.40%	24.76%	23.69%	24.40%	24.50%	24.50%	24.50%	24.50%	24.50%
EBIAT	235.11	251.08	296.31	604.21	962.14	900.52	1,122.56	1,399.34	1,744.36	2,174.45
Depreciation	33.70	36.20	38.50	41.90	69	92.54	115.36	143.81	179.26	223.46
Accounts Receivable	-	-4.70	10.60	-132.10	23.30	-408.59	-210.76	-262.72	-327.50	-408.25
Inventories	-	82.60	109.80	156.80	-240.80	-1,156.36	-521.61	-650.22	-810.54	-1,010.39
Accounts Payable	-	-0.20	15.90	66.30	-16.50	95.56	59.90	74.67	93.08	116.04
Capital Expenditure	-57.90	-66.80	-48.80	-82	-107.90	-153.36	-191.17	-238.31	-297.07	-370.31
UFCF	210.91	298.18	422.31	655.11	689.24	-629.69	374.28	466.56	581.60	725
WACC
PV UFCF						-587.78	326.12	379.47	441.55	513.78
SUM PV UFCF										1,073.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1)	739.50
Terminal Value	14,415.14
Present Value of Terminal Value	10,215.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	11,288.72
Net Debt	3,453.50
Equity Value	7,835.22
Shares Outstanding	22.40
Equity Value Per Share	349.79