Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)

$225.47

+3.91 (+1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 349.79 | 225.47 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,874.407,210.307,131.809,837.7015,433.9019,239.2923,982.9329,896.1737,267.3746,456.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 348.30368.30432.30833.701,341.601,285.311,602.221,997.262,489.703,103.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 314.60332.10393.80791.801,272.601,192.771,486.851,853.452,310.442,880.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.7036.2038.5041.906992.54115.36143.81179.26223.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 8.303.501.40189.40240.70141.36176.21219.66273.82341.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 343.30348337.40469.50446.20854.791,065.551,328.271,655.772,064.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,067.60985875.20718.40959.202,115.562,637.183,287.404,097.945,108.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 81.9081.7097.60163.90147.40242.96302.86377.53470.62586.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.90-66.80-48.80-82-107.90-153.36-191.17-238.31-297.07-370.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 225.47
Beta 1.126
Diluted Shares Outstanding 22.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.942
Total Debt 3,688.80
Total Equity 5,050.53
Total Capital 8,739.33
Debt Weighting 42.21
Equity Weighting 57.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,874.407,210.307,131.809,837.7015,433.9019,239.2923,982.9329,896.1737,267.3746,456.03
EBITDA 348.30368.30432.30833.701,341.601,285.311,602.221,997.262,489.703,103.57
EBIT 314.60332.10393.80791.801,272.601,192.771,486.851,853.452,310.442,880.10
Tax Rate 25.27%24.40%24.76%23.69%24.40%24.50%24.50%24.50%24.50%24.50%
EBIAT 235.11251.08296.31604.21962.14900.521,122.561,399.341,744.362,174.45
Depreciation 33.7036.2038.5041.906992.54115.36143.81179.26223.46
Accounts Receivable --4.7010.60-132.1023.30-408.59-210.76-262.72-327.50-408.25
Inventories -82.60109.80156.80-240.80-1,156.36-521.61-650.22-810.54-1,010.39
Accounts Payable --0.2015.9066.30-16.5095.5659.9074.6793.08116.04
Capital Expenditure -57.90-66.80-48.80-82-107.90-153.36-191.17-238.31-297.07-370.31
UFCF 210.91298.18422.31655.11689.24-629.69374.28466.56581.60725
WACC
PV UFCF -587.78326.12379.47441.55513.78
SUM PV UFCF 1,073.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 739.50
Terminal Value 14,415.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,215.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,288.72
Net Debt 3,453.50
Equity Value 7,835.22
Shares Outstanding 22.40
Equity Value Per Share 349.79