Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)

$218.49

+13.60 (+6.64%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 590.77 | 218.49 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,874.40	7,210.30	7,131.80	9,837.70	15,433.90	19,239.29	23,982.93	29,896.17	37,267.37	46,456.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	344.60	372.90	451	841.70	1,548.70	1,350.55	1,683.54	2,098.63	2,616.07	3,261.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	310.90	336.70	412.50	799.80	1,473.15	1,256.37	1,566.14	1,952.28	2,433.64	3,033.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	33.70	36.20	38.50	41.90	75.55	94.18	117.40	146.34	182.43	227.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	8.30	3.50	1.40	189.90	81.77	101.93	127.06	158.39	197.45	246.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	343.30	348	337.40	469.50	745.60	929.44	1,158.60	1,444.26	1,800.36	2,244.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,067.60	985	875.20	718.40	1,881.60	2,345.53	2,923.84	3,644.75	4,543.40	5,663.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	81.90	81.70	97.60	163.90	206.78	257.76	321.31	400.54	499.29	622.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57.90	-66.80	-48.80	-82	-126.81	-158.07	-197.05	-245.63	-306.20	-381.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 218.49
Beta	1.124
Diluted Shares Outstanding	22.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.40
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.997
Total Debt	4,561.20
Total Equity	4,894.18
Total Capital	9,455.38
Debt Weighting	48.24
Equity Weighting	51.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,874.40	7,210.30	7,131.80	9,837.70	15,433.90	19,239.29	23,982.93	29,896.17	37,267.37	46,456.03
EBITDA	344.60	372.90	451	841.70	1,548.70	1,350.55	1,683.54	2,098.63	2,616.07	3,261.09
EBIT	310.90	336.70	412.50	799.80	1,473.15	1,256.37	1,566.14	1,952.28	2,433.64	3,033.68
Tax Rate	25.27%	24.40%	24.76%	23.69%	24.40%	24.50%	24.50%	24.50%	24.50%	24.50%
EBIAT	232.35	254.56	310.38	610.31	1,113.77	948.54	1,182.42	1,473.95	1,837.37	2,290.39
Depreciation	33.70	36.20	38.50	41.90	75.55	94.18	117.40	146.34	182.43	227.41
Accounts Receivable	-	-4.70	10.60	-132.10	-276.10	-183.84	-229.16	-285.66	-356.10	-443.90
Inventories	-	82.60	109.80	156.80	-1,163.20	-463.93	-578.31	-720.90	-898.65	-1,120.22
Accounts Payable	-	-0.20	15.90	66.30	42.88	50.98	63.55	79.22	98.76	123.11
Capital Expenditure	-57.90	-66.80	-48.80	-82	-126.81	-158.07	-197.05	-245.63	-306.20	-381.69
UFCF	208.15	301.66	436.38	661.21	-333.91	287.87	358.84	447.32	557.61	695.09
WACC
PV UFCF						272.94	322.59	381.27	450.62	532.60
SUM PV UFCF										1,960.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.47
Free cash flow (t + 1)	709
Terminal Value	20,432.13
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,655.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	17,615.58
Net Debt	4,382.30
Equity Value	13,233.28
Shares Outstanding	22.40
Equity Value Per Share	590.77