Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)

$218.49

+13.60 (+6.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 590.77 | 218.49 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,874.407,210.307,131.809,837.7015,433.9019,239.2923,982.9329,896.1737,267.3746,456.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 344.60372.90451841.701,548.701,350.551,683.542,098.632,616.073,261.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 310.90336.70412.50799.801,473.151,256.371,566.141,952.282,433.643,033.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.7036.2038.5041.9075.5594.18117.40146.34182.43227.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 8.303.501.40189.9081.77101.93127.06158.39197.45246.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 343.30348337.40469.50745.60929.441,158.601,444.261,800.362,244.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,067.60985875.20718.401,881.602,345.532,923.843,644.754,543.405,663.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 81.9081.7097.60163.90206.78257.76321.31400.54499.29622.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.90-66.80-48.80-82-126.81-158.07-197.05-245.63-306.20-381.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 218.49
Beta 1.124
Diluted Shares Outstanding 22.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.997
Total Debt 4,561.20
Total Equity 4,894.18
Total Capital 9,455.38
Debt Weighting 48.24
Equity Weighting 51.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,874.407,210.307,131.809,837.7015,433.9019,239.2923,982.9329,896.1737,267.3746,456.03
EBITDA 344.60372.90451841.701,548.701,350.551,683.542,098.632,616.073,261.09
EBIT 310.90336.70412.50799.801,473.151,256.371,566.141,952.282,433.643,033.68
Tax Rate 25.27%24.40%24.76%23.69%24.40%24.50%24.50%24.50%24.50%24.50%
EBIAT 232.35254.56310.38610.311,113.77948.541,182.421,473.951,837.372,290.39
Depreciation 33.7036.2038.5041.9075.5594.18117.40146.34182.43227.41
Accounts Receivable --4.7010.60-132.10-276.10-183.84-229.16-285.66-356.10-443.90
Inventories -82.60109.80156.80-1,163.20-463.93-578.31-720.90-898.65-1,120.22
Accounts Payable --0.2015.9066.3042.8850.9863.5579.2298.76123.11
Capital Expenditure -57.90-66.80-48.80-82-126.81-158.07-197.05-245.63-306.20-381.69
UFCF 208.15301.66436.38661.21-333.91287.87358.84447.32557.61695.09
WACC
PV UFCF 272.94322.59381.27450.62532.60
SUM PV UFCF 1,960.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) 709
Terminal Value 20,432.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,655.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 17,615.58
Net Debt 4,382.30
Equity Value 13,233.28
Shares Outstanding 22.40
Equity Value Per Share 590.77