Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)
$218.49
+13.60 (+6.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,874.40 | 7,210.30 | 7,131.80 | 9,837.70 | 15,433.90 | 19,239.29 | 23,982.93 | 29,896.17 | 37,267.37 | 46,456.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 344.60 | 372.90 | 451 | 841.70 | 1,548.70 | 1,350.55 | 1,683.54 | 2,098.63 | 2,616.07 | 3,261.09 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 310.90 | 336.70 | 412.50 | 799.80 | 1,473.15 | 1,256.37 | 1,566.14 | 1,952.28 | 2,433.64 | 3,033.68 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 33.70 | 36.20 | 38.50 | 41.90 | 75.55 | 94.18 | 117.40 | 146.34 | 182.43 | 227.41 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 8.30 | 3.50 | 1.40 | 189.90 | 81.77 | 101.93 | 127.06 | 158.39 | 197.45 | 246.13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 343.30 | 348 | 337.40 | 469.50 | 745.60 | 929.44 | 1,158.60 | 1,444.26 | 1,800.36 | 2,244.26 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,067.60 | 985 | 875.20 | 718.40 | 1,881.60 | 2,345.53 | 2,923.84 | 3,644.75 | 4,543.40 | 5,663.62 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 81.90 | 81.70 | 97.60 | 163.90 | 206.78 | 257.76 | 321.31 | 400.54 | 499.29 | 622.40 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -57.90 | -66.80 | -48.80 | -82 | -126.81 | -158.07 | -197.05 | -245.63 | -306.20 | -381.69 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 218.49 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.124 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 22.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.40 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.69% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.997 |
Total Debt | 4,561.20 |
Total Equity | 4,894.18 |
Total Capital | 9,455.38 |
Debt Weighting | 48.24 |
Equity Weighting | 51.76 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 6,874.40 | 7,210.30 | 7,131.80 | 9,837.70 | 15,433.90 | 19,239.29 | 23,982.93 | 29,896.17 | 37,267.37 | 46,456.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 344.60 | 372.90 | 451 | 841.70 | 1,548.70 | 1,350.55 | 1,683.54 | 2,098.63 | 2,616.07 | 3,261.09 |
EBIT | 310.90 | 336.70 | 412.50 | 799.80 | 1,473.15 | 1,256.37 | 1,566.14 | 1,952.28 | 2,433.64 | 3,033.68 |
Tax Rate | 25.27% | 24.40% | 24.76% | 23.69% | 24.40% | 24.50% | 24.50% | 24.50% | 24.50% | 24.50% |
EBIAT | 232.35 | 254.56 | 310.38 | 610.31 | 1,113.77 | 948.54 | 1,182.42 | 1,473.95 | 1,837.37 | 2,290.39 |
Depreciation | 33.70 | 36.20 | 38.50 | 41.90 | 75.55 | 94.18 | 117.40 | 146.34 | 182.43 | 227.41 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -4.70 | 10.60 | -132.10 | -276.10 | -183.84 | -229.16 | -285.66 | -356.10 | -443.90 |
Inventories | - | 82.60 | 109.80 | 156.80 | -1,163.20 | -463.93 | -578.31 | -720.90 | -898.65 | -1,120.22 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.20 | 15.90 | 66.30 | 42.88 | 50.98 | 63.55 | 79.22 | 98.76 | 123.11 |
Capital Expenditure | -57.90 | -66.80 | -48.80 | -82 | -126.81 | -158.07 | -197.05 | -245.63 | -306.20 | -381.69 |
UFCF | 208.15 | 301.66 | 436.38 | 661.21 | -333.91 | 287.87 | 358.84 | 447.32 | 557.61 | 695.09 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 272.94 | 322.59 | 381.27 | 450.62 | 532.60 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,960.01 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.47 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 709 |
Terminal Value | 20,432.13 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 15,655.57 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 17,615.58 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,382.30 |
Equity Value | 13,233.28 |
Shares Outstanding | 22.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 590.77 |