Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)

$67.58

+1.84 (+2.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 540.61 | 67.58 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 116.56148.20187.48248.57339.32443.45579.54757.38989.801,293.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 89.86102.39139.82175.11295.07335.40438.33572.85748.64978.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 58.1158.6980.6292.47175.05196.23256.45335.14437.99572.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 31.7543.7059.2082.64120.01139.18181.89237.70310.65405.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 50.8153.9615.606.1443.2591.83120.01156.83204.96267.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 15.4821.5526.8137.8153.4464.8184.70110.70144.66189.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2.423.083.895.167.059.2112.0315.7320.5526.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.179.9048.9971.397081.36106.33138.96181.61237.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 67.58
Beta 0.419
Diluted Shares Outstanding 52.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.782
Total Debt 1,687.63
Total Equity 3,540.97
Total Capital 5,228.60
Debt Weighting 32.28
Equity Weighting 67.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 116.56148.20187.48248.57339.32443.45579.54757.38989.801,293.55
EBITDA 89.86102.39139.82175.11295.07335.40438.33572.85748.64978.37
EBIT 58.1158.6980.6292.47175.05196.23256.45335.14437.99572.40
Tax Rate 1.15%1.93%1.50%1.80%2.40%1.76%1.76%1.76%1.76%1.76%
EBIAT 57.4457.5679.4190.80170.85192.78251.94329.26430.30562.35
Depreciation 31.7543.7059.2082.64120.01139.18181.89237.70310.65405.98
Accounts Receivable --6.07-5.26-11-15.63-11.37-19.89-25.99-33.97-44.39
Inventories --0.66-0.82-1.27-1.88-2.16-2.83-3.69-4.83-6.31
Accounts Payable --1.2739.0922.40-1.3911.3624.9732.6342.6455.73
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----329.78436.08569.91744.80973.35
WACC
PV UFCF 314.50396.60494.28616.02767.75
SUM PV UFCF 2,589.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 992.82
Terminal Value 34,714.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 27,381.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 29,970.56
Net Debt 1,644.38
Equity Value 28,326.18
Shares Outstanding 52.40
Equity Value Per Share 540.61