Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aegon N.V. (AEG)

$4.81

+0.03 (+0.63%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 109.92 | 4.81 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	49,791	14,551	61,136	44,332	46,138	72,201.53	112,988.45	176,816.06	276,700.12	433,009.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,750	2,572	3,155	852	3,853	5,868.65	9,183.87	14,371.88	22,490.61	35,195.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,969	1,257	1,970	130	2,686	3,456.83	5,409.60	8,465.51	13,247.70	20,731.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	781	1,315	1,185	722	1,167	2,411.82	3,774.27	5,906.37	9,242.90	14,464.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	101,270	94,995	103,462	108,999	108,255	217,466.29	340,313.82	532,558.40	833,402.66	1,304,194.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	8,091	6,019	6,655	6,826	5,622	13,874.68	21,712.54	33,978.03	53,172.35	83,209.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4,579	2,872	3,256	2,752	3,080	6,807.61	10,653.25	16,671.31	26,088.99	40,826.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-106	-123	-148	-120	-112	-261.91	-409.86	-641.39	-1,003.71	-1,570.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.81
Beta	1.282
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,602
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.50
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.765
Total Debt	12,233
Total Equity	12,515.62
Total Capital	24,748.62
Debt Weighting	49.43
Equity Weighting	50.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	49,791	14,551	61,136	44,332	46,138	72,201.53	112,988.45	176,816.06	276,700.12	433,009.07
EBITDA	3,750	2,572	3,155	852	3,853	5,868.65	9,183.87	14,371.88	22,490.61	35,195.64
EBIT	2,969	1,257	1,970	130	2,686	3,456.83	5,409.60	8,465.51	13,247.70	20,731.38
Tax Rate	2.57%	5.46%	14.96%	59.89%	17.50%	20.08%	20.08%	20.08%	20.08%	20.08%
EBIAT	2,892.84	1,188.38	1,675.24	52.14	2,215.95	2,762.86	4,323.60	6,766.03	10,588.18	16,569.48
Depreciation	781	1,315	1,185	722	1,167	2,411.82	3,774.27	5,906.37	9,242.90	14,464.26
Accounts Receivable	-	2,072	-636	-171	1,204	-8,252.68	-7,837.86	-12,265.49	-19,194.32	-30,037.26
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-1,707	384	-504	328	3,727.61	3,845.64	6,018.06	9,417.68	14,737.77
Capital Expenditure	-106	-123	-148	-120	-112	-261.91	-409.86	-641.39	-1,003.71	-1,570.71
UFCF	3,567.84	2,745.38	2,460.24	-20.86	4,802.95	387.70	3,695.80	5,783.58	9,050.74	14,163.54
WACC
PV UFCF						365.55	3,285.53	4,847.77	7,152.83	10,553.92
SUM PV UFCF										26,205.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.06
Free cash flow (t + 1)	14,446.81
Terminal Value	355,832.81
Present Value of Terminal Value	265,147.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	291,353.30
Net Debt	5,344
Equity Value	286,009.30
Shares Outstanding	2,602
Equity Value Per Share	109.92