Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AGF Management Limited (AGF-B.TO)

$6.16

-0.01 (-0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 16.48 | 6.16 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 416.79418.36393.27380.65448.84459.03469.45480.11491.01502.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 119.81107.7368.23209.0165.08129.68132.63135.64138.72141.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 72.3468.1263.99200.7954.59105.42107.81110.26112.76115.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 47.4739.604.248.2210.4924.2624.8125.3825.9526.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 44.3975.7072.91112.18109.5692.8794.9897.1499.35101.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 47.5553.3345.5038.1143.4650.8852.0353.2254.4255.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 69.9927.5227.9121.4020.3637.3038.1539.0139.9040.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.61-3.49-1.54-3.30-13.27-5.21-5.33-5.45-5.57-5.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.16
Beta 1.831
Diluted Shares Outstanding 78.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.50%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.470
Total Debt 84.63
Total Equity 482.69
Total Capital 567.32
Debt Weighting 14.92
Equity Weighting 85.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 416.79418.36393.27380.65448.84459.03469.45480.11491.01502.16
EBITDA 119.81107.7368.23209.0165.08129.68132.63135.64138.72141.87
EBIT 72.3468.1263.99200.7954.59105.42107.81110.26112.76115.32
Tax Rate 16.09%-18.85%16.36%10.55%24.13%9.66%9.66%9.66%9.66%9.66%
EBIAT 60.7080.9753.53179.6041.4295.2497.4099.61101.87104.19
Depreciation 47.4739.604.248.2210.4924.2624.8125.3825.9526.54
Accounts Receivable --5.787.827.39-5.34-7.42-1.16-1.18-1.21-1.24
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --42.480.39-6.51-1.0416.940.850.870.890.91
Capital Expenditure -2.61-3.49-1.54-3.30-13.27-5.21-5.33-5.45-5.57-5.70
UFCF 105.5668.8364.44185.4032.25123.81116.58119.22121.93124.70
WACC
PV UFCF 111.5694.6587.2280.3874.07
SUM PV UFCF 447.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 127.19
Terminal Value 1,416.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 841.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,289.22
Net Debt -1.85
Equity Value 1,291.07
Shares Outstanding 78.36
Equity Value Per Share 16.48