Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI.TO)

$16.79

+0.15 (+0.90%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -28.60 | 16.79 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	651.80	683.10	748.10	823.60	821.20	870.71	923.22	978.88	1,037.90	1,100.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	131.20	296.40	376.30	177.70	279.60	295.07	312.87	331.73	351.73	372.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-35.40	131.40	222.50	6.80	108.10	100.19	106.24	112.64	119.43	126.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	166.60	165	153.80	170.90	171.50	194.88	206.63	219.09	232.30	246.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	213.80	205.60	264.20	196.40	148.40	244.03	258.75	274.35	290.89	308.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	40.50	42	34.70	39.80	37.20	45.91	48.68	51.61	54.72	58.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	110.20	126.90	148.50	199	234.20	188.10	199.44	211.47	224.22	237.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	104.40	118.30	117.70	137.60	147.60	145.84	154.64	163.96	173.85	184.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-221.50	-263.60	-300.90	-364.30	-313.70	-339.97	-360.47	-382.21	-405.25	-429.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 16.79
Beta	1.025
Diluted Shares Outstanding	394.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	63.77
After-tax Cost of Debt	516.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.537
Total Debt	0.40
Total Equity	6,623.79
Total Capital	6,624.19
Debt Weighting	0.01
Equity Weighting	99.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	651.80	683.10	748.10	823.60	821.20	870.71	923.22	978.88	1,037.90	1,100.49
EBITDA	131.20	296.40	376.30	177.70	279.60	295.07	312.87	331.73	351.73	372.94
EBIT	-35.40	131.40	222.50	6.80	108.10	100.19	106.24	112.64	119.43	126.64
Tax Rate	-89.06%	25.45%	33.91%	3,000.00%	63.77%	606.81%	606.81%	606.81%	606.81%	606.81%
EBIAT	-66.93	97.96	147.04	-197.20	39.17	-507.80	-538.42	-570.88	-605.31	-641.80
Depreciation	166.60	165	153.80	170.90	171.50	194.88	206.63	219.09	232.30	246.31
Accounts Receivable	-	-1.50	7.30	-5.10	2.60	-8.71	-2.77	-2.94	-3.11	-3.30
Inventories	-	-16.70	-21.60	-50.50	-35.20	46.10	-11.34	-12.03	-12.75	-13.52
Accounts Payable	-	13.90	-0.60	19.90	10	-1.76	8.79	9.32	9.89	10.48
Capital Expenditure	-221.50	-263.60	-300.90	-364.30	-313.70	-339.97	-360.47	-382.21	-405.25	-429.69
UFCF	-121.83	-4.94	-14.96	-426.30	-125.63	-617.26	-697.58	-739.64	-784.24	-831.52
WACC
PV UFCF						-568.54	-591.80	-577.95	-564.43	-551.22
SUM PV UFCF										-2,853.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.57
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-848.15
Terminal Value	-12,909.48
Present Value of Terminal Value	-8,557.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-11,411.69
Net Debt	-129.40
Equity Value	-11,282.29
Shares Outstanding	394.51
Equity Value Per Share	-28.60