Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)

$7.41

+0.19 (+2.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -88.23 | 7.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 542.80651.80683.10748.10823.60915.211,0171,130.121,255.821,395.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 156.90131.20296.40376.30177.70300.74334.19371.36412.67458.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 31.30-35.40131.40222.506.8091.77101.98113.33125.93139.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 125.60166.60165153.80170.90208.97232.21258.04286.74318.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 236.60213.80205.60264.20196.40303.21336.93374.41416.06462.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 34.5047.504234.7039.8053.5659.5266.1473.5081.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 161.20110.20126.90148.50199199.87222.10246.81274.26304.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 87.30104.83109.86120.32132.46147.20163.57181.76201.98224.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -169.20-221.50-263.60-300.90-364.30-344.48-382.80-425.37-472.69-525.26
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.41
Beta 1.070
Diluted Shares Outstanding 392.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3,000.00
After-tax Cost of Debt -32,625.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.855
Total Debt 0.40
Total Equity 2,909.53
Total Capital 2,909.93
Debt Weighting 0.01
Equity Weighting 99.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 542.80651.80683.10748.10823.60915.211,0171,130.121,255.821,395.50
EBITDA 156.90131.20296.40376.30177.70300.74334.19371.36412.67458.57
EBIT 31.30-35.40131.40222.506.8091.77101.98113.33125.93139.94
Tax Rate -19.82%-89.06%25.45%33.91%3,000.00%590.10%590.10%590.10%590.10%590.10%
EBIAT 37.50-66.9397.96147.04-197.20-449.78-499.81-555.40-617.18-685.83
Depreciation 125.60166.60165153.80170.90208.97232.21258.04286.74318.63
Accounts Receivable --135.507.30-5.10-13.76-5.96-6.62-7.36-8.17
Inventories -51-16.70-21.60-50.50-0.87-22.23-24.70-27.45-30.50
Accounts Payable -17.535.0310.4512.1414.7316.3718.1920.2222.47
Capital Expenditure -169.20-221.50-263.60-300.90-364.30-344.48-382.80-425.37-472.69-525.26
UFCF -6.10-66.30-6.80-3.90-434.06-585.20-662.22-735.87-817.72-908.67
WACC
PV UFCF -560.70-607.92-647.25-689.13-733.72
SUM PV UFCF -3,238.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) -926.85
Terminal Value -39,107.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -31,577.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -34,816.48
Net Debt -172.10
Equity Value -34,644.38
Shares Outstanding 392.65
Equity Value Per Share -88.23