Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Aimia Inc. (AIM.TO)

$3.45

+0.05 (+1.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.15 | 3.45 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,624.40167.1013414.3013.406.533.181.550.750.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -43.60159.501,135.803.70-10.7011.575.642.751.340.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -233.70-431,131.300.80-11.409.464.612.251.090.53
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 190.10202.504.502.900.702.111.030.500.240.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 555.10380.90185.20146.1034.8021.9610.705.212.541.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 156.1059.7066.808.600.902.121.030.500.240.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 51.800.900.100.090.040.020.010.010
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12725.20213.502.111.030.500.240.120.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -43.40-26.80-12.54-1.34-1.25-0.61-0.30-0.14-0.07-0.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.45
Beta 1.478
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -35.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.778
Total Debt -
Total Equity 370.83
Total Capital 370.83
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,624.40167.1013414.3013.406.533.181.550.750.37
EBITDA -43.60159.501,135.803.70-10.7011.575.642.751.340.65
EBIT -233.70-431,131.300.80-11.409.464.612.251.090.53
Tax Rate -120.64%53.93%-1,779.05%59.80%-35.54%-364.30%-364.30%-364.30%-364.30%-364.30%
EBIAT -515.63-19.8121,257.740.32-15.4543.9321.4010.425.082.47
Depreciation 190.10202.504.502.900.702.111.030.500.240.12
Accounts Receivable -96.40-7.1058.207.70-1.221.080.530.260.13
Inventories -3.200.900.800.010.050.020.010.010
Accounts Payable --101.80-4.20-17.50-1.39-1.08-0.53-0.26-0.13-0.06
Capital Expenditure -43.40-26.80-12.54-1.34-1.25-0.61-0.30-0.14-0.07-0.03
UFCF -368.93153.6921,239.3043.39-9.6943.1722.7111.065.392.63
WACC
PV UFCF 38.9718.508.143.581.57
SUM PV UFCF 70.77

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2.68
Terminal Value 30.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 18.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 89.05
Net Debt -34.80
Equity Value 123.85
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share 1.15