Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Albany International Corp. (AIN)

$78.83

-0.44 (-0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 44.65 | 78.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 863.72982.481,054.13900.61929.24951.68974.66998.191,022.291,046.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 145.79214.40267.67229.46254.79222.68228.05233.56239.20244.97
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 73.84135.36196.88156.75180.53148.15151.73155.39159.14162.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 71.9679.0470.7972.7174.2674.5376.3378.1780.0681.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 183.73197.76195.54241.32302.04226.97232.45238.06243.81249.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 204.07283.24299.10328.42304.53285.63292.53299.59306.83314.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 136.5285.9095.15110.48117.88111.40114.09116.85119.67122.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 44.9052.2565.2049.1768.9556.3157.6659.0660.4861.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -87.64-82.89-67.95-42.39-53.70-67.60-69.23-70.90-72.61-74.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 78.83
Beta 1.285
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.869
Total Debt 350
Total Equity 2,550.62
Total Capital 2,900.62
Debt Weighting 12.07
Equity Weighting 87.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 863.72982.481,054.13900.61929.24951.68974.66998.191,022.291,046.98
EBITDA 145.79214.40267.67229.46254.79222.68228.05233.56239.20244.97
EBIT 73.84135.36196.88156.75180.53148.15151.73155.39159.14162.98
Tax Rate 39.48%28.08%25.71%29.11%28.60%30.19%30.19%30.19%30.19%30.19%
EBIAT 44.6997.36146.26111.12128.90103.42105.91108.47111.09113.77
Depreciation 71.9679.0470.7972.7174.2674.5376.3378.1780.0681.99
Accounts Receivable --79.17-15.87-29.3123.8918.90-6.90-7.06-7.23-7.41
Inventories -50.61-9.24-15.33-7.406.48-2.69-2.75-2.82-2.89
Accounts Payable -7.3512.96-16.0319.78-12.651.361.391.431.46
Capital Expenditure -87.64-82.89-67.95-42.39-53.70-67.60-69.23-70.90-72.61-74.37
UFCF 29.0172.30136.9580.76185.72123.08104.78107.31109.90112.56
WACC
PV UFCF 112.8788.1382.7777.7573.02
SUM PV UFCF 434.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 114.81
Terminal Value 1,630.82
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,057.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,492.52
Net Debt 47.96
Equity Value 1,444.55
Shares Outstanding 32.36
Equity Value Per Share 44.65