Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Airbus SE (AIR.PA)

93.14 €

-0.21 (-0.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 27.05 | 93.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 66,76763,70770,47849,91252,14949,717.0847,398.5845,188.1943,080.8841,071.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,3817,2124,3392,1737,7444,746.534,525.184,314.154,112.973,921.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,0834,7681,412-6585,4192,602.572,481.202,365.502,255.182,150.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,2982,4442,9272,8312,3252,143.962,043.971,948.661,857.781,771.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14,49612,47712,08416,35816,19612,158.1111,591.1211,050.5810,535.2510,043.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 28,09028,31027,91027,28625,16622,774.0621,712.0220,699.5019,734.2018,813.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13,44416,23714,8088,7229,69310,211.439,735.239,281.248,848.428,435.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,558-2,285-2,340-1,759-1,928-1,785.78-1,702.51-1,623.11-1,547.42-1,475.26
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 93.14
Beta 1.814
Diluted Shares Outstanding 783.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.366
Total Debt 13,461
Total Equity 72,945.22
Total Capital 86,406.22
Debt Weighting 15.58
Equity Weighting 84.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 66,76763,70770,47849,91252,14949,717.0847,398.5845,188.1943,080.8841,071.85
EBITDA 7,3817,2124,3392,1737,7444,746.534,525.184,314.154,112.973,921.16
EBIT 5,0834,7681,412-6585,4192,602.572,481.202,365.502,255.182,150.01
Tax Rate 37.13%28.73%228.01%-0.27%16.19%61.96%61.96%61.96%61.96%61.96%
EBIAT 3,195.513,398.24-1,807.47-659.754,541.52990.04943.87899.85857.89817.88
Depreciation 2,2982,4442,9272,8312,3252,143.962,043.971,948.661,857.781,771.15
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --2204006242,1202,391.941,062.051,012.52965.30920.28
Accounts Payable -2,793-1,429-6,086971518.43-476.20-453.99-432.82-412.64
Capital Expenditure -2,558-2,285-2,340-1,759-1,928-1,785.78-1,702.51-1,623.11-1,547.42-1,475.26
UFCF 2,935.516,130.24-2,249.47-5,049.758,029.534,258.581,871.181,783.921,700.731,621.42
WACC
PV UFCF 3,844.181,524.731,312.181,129.25971.83
SUM PV UFCF 8,782.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,653.85
Terminal Value 18,836.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,290.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,072.18
Net Debt -1,111
Equity Value 21,183.18
Shares Outstanding 783.18
Equity Value Per Share 27.05