Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Air T, Inc. (AIRT)

$20.29

-0.20 (-0.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -91.17 | 20.29 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 194.52249.83236.79175.12177.08176.32175.56174.81174.07173.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4.2013.8217.28-3.2018.778.388.348.318.278.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.206.1311.57-6.3116.914.714.694.674.654.63
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -7.695.713.111.863.663.653.633.623.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 5.0914.287.6312.406.477.867.837.807.767.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 19.3924.2614.2510.8932.0517.6417.5617.4917.4117.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 34.2329.9760.6271.9775.1748.9348.7248.5148.3048.09
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.4512.5510.868.349.408.838.808.768.728.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.22-20.47-38.69-6.01-1.56-13.84-13.78-13.72-13.66-13.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.29
Beta 1.184
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.413
Total Debt 143.99
Total Equity 58.60
Total Capital 202.58
Debt Weighting 71.07
Equity Weighting 28.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 194.52249.83236.79175.12177.08176.32175.56174.81174.07173.32
EBITDA 4.2013.8217.28-3.2018.778.388.348.318.278.23
EBIT 4.206.1311.57-6.3116.914.714.694.674.654.63
Tax Rate 14.12%71.50%-191.77%38.23%18.42%-9.90%-9.90%-9.90%-9.90%-9.90%
EBIAT 3.601.7533.76-3.9013.795.185.165.135.115.09
Depreciation -7.695.713.111.863.663.653.633.623.60
Accounts Receivable --4.8810.013.36-21.1614.410.080.080.070.07
Inventories -4.26-30.66-11.35-3.2026.240.210.210.210.21
Accounts Payable -2.11-1.69-2.521.05-0.56-0.04-0.04-0.04-0.04
Capital Expenditure -20.22-20.47-38.69-6-1.56-13.84-13.78-13.72-13.66-13.60
UFCF -16.61-9.54-21.56-17.31-9.2135.10-4.72-4.70-4.68-4.66
WACC
PV UFCF 33.54-4.31-4.10-3.90-3.71
SUM PV UFCF 17.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.76
Terminal Value -178.84
Present Value of Terminal Value -142.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -124.92
Net Debt 138.37
Equity Value -263.28
Shares Outstanding 2.89
Equity Value Per Share -91.17