Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Air Lease Corporation (AL)

$44.73

-0.66 (-1.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3,077.83 | 44.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,516.381,679.702,016.902,015.442,088.392,267.952,462.952,674.722,904.703,154.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,375.801,532.151,835.821,470.391,474.201,889.262,051.702,228.112,419.692,627.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 867.45950.161,133.01689.70591.641,054.591,145.271,243.741,350.681,466.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 508.35581.98702.81780.69882.56834.67906.44984.371,069.011,160.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 292.20300.13317.491,734.161,086.50866.12940.591,021.471,109.291,204.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----611.76664.36721.48783.51850.88924.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,923.44-3,776.19-4,839.32-2,678.22-3,232.67-4,287.43-4,656.06-5,056.40-5,491.16-5,963.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.73
Beta 1.783
Diluted Shares Outstanding 114.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.950
Total Debt 17,022.48
Total Equity 5,099.85
Total Capital 22,122.33
Debt Weighting 76.95
Equity Weighting 23.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,516.381,679.702,016.902,015.442,088.392,267.952,462.952,674.722,904.703,154.45
EBITDA 1,375.801,532.151,835.821,470.391,474.201,889.262,051.702,228.112,419.692,627.74
EBIT 867.45950.161,133.01689.70591.641,054.591,145.271,243.741,350.681,466.81
Tax Rate -24.05%20.20%20.19%20.17%19.29%11.16%11.16%11.16%11.16%11.16%
EBIAT 1,076.11758.24904.21550.61477.49936.901,017.461,104.941,199.941,303.12
Depreciation 508.35581.98702.81780.69882.56834.67906.44984.371,069.011,160.93
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -----52.6057.1262.0367.3773.16
Capital Expenditure -2,923.44-3,776.19-4,839.32-2,678.22-3,232.67-4,287.43-4,656.06-5,056.40-5,491.16-5,963.29
UFCF -1,338.98-2,435.97-3,232.31-1,346.92-1,872.62-2,463.25-2,675.05-2,905.05-3,154.83-3,426.09
WACC
PV UFCF -2,392.90-2,524.43-2,663.19-2,809.57-2,964
SUM PV UFCF -13,354.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,494.61
Terminal Value -371,767.23
Present Value of Terminal Value -321,625.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -334,979.44
Net Debt 15,935.98
Equity Value -350,915.42
Shares Outstanding 114.01
Equity Value Per Share -3,077.83