Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Air Lease Corporation (AL)

$44.73

-0.66 (-1.45%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -3,077.83 | 44.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,516.38	1,679.70	2,016.90	2,015.44	2,088.39	2,267.95	2,462.95	2,674.72	2,904.70	3,154.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,375.80	1,532.15	1,835.82	1,470.39	1,474.20	1,889.26	2,051.70	2,228.11	2,419.69	2,627.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	867.45	950.16	1,133.01	689.70	591.64	1,054.59	1,145.27	1,243.74	1,350.68	1,466.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	508.35	581.98	702.81	780.69	882.56	834.67	906.44	984.37	1,069.01	1,160.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	292.20	300.13	317.49	1,734.16	1,086.50	866.12	940.59	1,021.47	1,109.29	1,204.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	611.76	664.36	721.48	783.51	850.88	924.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,923.44	-3,776.19	-4,839.32	-2,678.22	-3,232.67	-4,287.43	-4,656.06	-5,056.40	-5,491.16	-5,963.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 44.73
Beta	1.783
Diluted Shares Outstanding	114.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.29
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.950
Total Debt	17,022.48
Total Equity	5,099.85
Total Capital	22,122.33
Debt Weighting	76.95
Equity Weighting	23.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,516.38	1,679.70	2,016.90	2,015.44	2,088.39	2,267.95	2,462.95	2,674.72	2,904.70	3,154.45
EBITDA	1,375.80	1,532.15	1,835.82	1,470.39	1,474.20	1,889.26	2,051.70	2,228.11	2,419.69	2,627.74
EBIT	867.45	950.16	1,133.01	689.70	591.64	1,054.59	1,145.27	1,243.74	1,350.68	1,466.81
Tax Rate	-24.05%	20.20%	20.19%	20.17%	19.29%	11.16%	11.16%	11.16%	11.16%	11.16%
EBIAT	1,076.11	758.24	904.21	550.61	477.49	936.90	1,017.46	1,104.94	1,199.94	1,303.12
Depreciation	508.35	581.98	702.81	780.69	882.56	834.67	906.44	984.37	1,069.01	1,160.93
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	52.60	57.12	62.03	67.37	73.16
Capital Expenditure	-2,923.44	-3,776.19	-4,839.32	-2,678.22	-3,232.67	-4,287.43	-4,656.06	-5,056.40	-5,491.16	-5,963.29
UFCF	-1,338.98	-2,435.97	-3,232.31	-1,346.92	-1,872.62	-2,463.25	-2,675.05	-2,905.05	-3,154.83	-3,426.09
WACC
PV UFCF						-2,392.90	-2,524.43	-2,663.19	-2,809.57	-2,964
SUM PV UFCF										-13,354.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.94
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-3,494.61
Terminal Value	-371,767.23
Present Value of Terminal Value	-321,625.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-334,979.44
Net Debt	15,935.98
Equity Value	-350,915.42
Shares Outstanding	114.01
Equity Value Per Share	-3,077.83