Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Air Lease Corporation (AL-PA)

$22.9

-0.13 (-0.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4,045.01 | 22.9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,516.381,679.702,016.902,015.442,088.392,267.952,462.952,674.722,904.703,154.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,147.341,254.831,004.481,902.131,474.201,656.241,798.641,953.292,121.242,303.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 638.98672.84301.671,121.44591.64821.57892.21968.921,052.231,142.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 508.35581.98702.81780.69882.56834.67906.44984.371,069.011,160.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 292.20300.13317.491,734.161,086.50866.12940.591,021.471,109.291,204.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----611.76664.36721.48783.51850.88924.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,923.44-3,776.19-3,843.98-2,678.22-3,232.67-4,063.58-4,412.97-4,792.40-5,204.46-5,651.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.9
Beta 1.817
Diluted Shares Outstanding 168.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.275
Total Debt 17,022.48
Total Equity 3,866.85
Total Capital 20,889.33
Debt Weighting 81.49
Equity Weighting 18.51
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,516.381,679.702,016.902,015.442,088.392,267.952,462.952,674.722,904.703,154.45
EBITDA 1,147.341,254.831,004.481,902.131,474.201,656.241,798.641,953.292,121.242,303.63
EBIT 638.98672.84301.671,121.44591.64821.57892.21968.921,052.231,142.70
Tax Rate -24.05%20.20%20.19%20.17%19.29%11.16%11.16%11.16%11.16%11.16%
EBIAT 792.69536.93240.75895.28477.49729.88792.64860.79934.801,015.18
Depreciation 508.35581.98702.81780.69882.56834.67906.44984.371,069.011,160.93
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -----52.6057.1262.0367.3773.16
Capital Expenditure -2,923.44-3,776.19-3,843.98-2,678.22-3,232.67-4,063.58-4,412.97-4,792.40-5,204.46-5,651.95
UFCF -1,622.40-2,657.27-2,900.41-1,002.25-1,872.62-2,446.43-2,656.77-2,885.21-3,133.28-3,402.68
WACC
PV UFCF -2,387.46-2,530.24-2,681.55-2,841.92-3,011.88
SUM PV UFCF -13,453.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,470.74
Terminal Value -738,454.83
Present Value of Terminal Value -653,642.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -667,095.51
Net Debt 15,935.98
Equity Value -683,031.49
Shares Outstanding 168.86
Equity Value Per Share -4,045.01