Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
AgroGeneration SA (ALAGR.PA)
0.0864 €
+0.00 (+1.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 54.20 | 41.01 | 30.59 | 39.15 | 43.90 | 42.84 | 41.81 | 40.80 | 39.82 | 38.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -0.42 | 5.50 | -12.52 | 10.68 | 22.37 | 4.28 | 4.18 | 4.07 | 3.98 | 3.88 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -6.67 | -3.44 | -21.52 | 4.37 | 15.24 | -3.87 | -3.78 | -3.68 | -3.60 | -3.51 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.24 | 8.94 | 9 | 6.31 | 7.12 | 8.15 | 7.95 | 7.76 | 7.57 | 7.39 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.77 | 1.98 | 2.28 | 4.62 | 7.10 | 3.73 | 3.64 | 3.55 | 3.47 | 3.38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 41.18 | 36.93 | 23.93 | 20.98 | 38.81 | 33.10 | 32.30 | 31.52 | 30.76 | 30.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.97 | 6.13 | 2.11 | 1.69 | 0.96 | 3.69 | 3.60 | 3.51 | 3.43 | 3.34 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.16 | -0.89 | -1.57 | -1.13 | -3.09 | -2.61 | -2.54 | -2.48 | -2.42 | -2.36 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.0,864 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.544 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 226.66 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.80 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.69% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.087 |
| Total Debt | 24.60 |
| Total Equity | 19.58 |
| Total Capital | 44.18 |
| Debt Weighting | 55.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 44.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 54.20 | 41.01 | 30.59 | 39.15 | 43.90 | 42.84 | 41.81 | 40.80 | 39.82 | 38.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -0.42 | 5.50 | -12.52 | 10.68 | 22.37 | 4.28 | 4.18 | 4.07 | 3.98 | 3.88 |
| EBIT | -6.67 | -3.44 | -21.52 | 4.37 | 15.24 | -3.87 | -3.78 | -3.68 | -3.60 | -3.51 |
| Tax Rate | 0.51% | -35.00% | -55.23% | -29.30% | -0.80% | -23.96% | -23.96% | -23.96% | -23.96% | -23.96% |
| EBIAT | -6.63 | -4.65 | -33.40 | 5.65 | 15.37 | -4.80 | -4.68 | -4.57 | -4.46 | -4.35 |
| Depreciation | 6.24 | 8.94 | 9 | 6.31 | 7.12 | 8.15 | 7.95 | 7.76 | 7.57 | 7.39 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 4.25 | 13 | 2.95 | -17.83 | 5.72 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.84 | -4.02 | -0.42 | -0.72 | 2.73 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.16 | -0.89 | -1.57 | -1.13 | -3.09 | -2.61 | -2.54 | -2.48 | -2.42 | -2.36 |
| UFCF | -7.55 | 5.81 | -16.99 | 13.36 | 0.85 | 9.19 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 8.72 | 1.29 | 1.20 | 1.11 | 1.03 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 13.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.31 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1.36 |
| Terminal Value | 41.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 31.73 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 45.09 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 20.19 |
| Equity Value | 24.90 |
| Shares Outstanding | 226.66 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.11 |