Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Baikowski SA (ALBKK.PA)

18.2 €

-0.60 (-3.19%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 6.21 | 18.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	39.52	42.24	40.46	35.57	44.85	46.72	48.67	50.70	52.82	55.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	9.56	10.02	7.68	6.33	11.73	10.36	10.79	11.24	11.71	12.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	5.57	6.15	3.20	1.72	7.62	5.45	5.68	5.92	6.16	6.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	4	3.88	4.48	4.62	4.12	4.91	5.11	5.33	5.55	5.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	2.85	5.17	4.93	7.24	9.39	6.81	7.10	7.40	7.70	8.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	8.25	11.34	11.98	10.40	9.80	12	12.50	13.02	13.56	14.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4.49	5.15	4.76	4.39	3.48	5.18	5.39	5.62	5.85	6.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-	-0.39	-0.38	-0.33	-0.42	-0.44	-0.45	-0.47	-0.49	-0.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 18.2
Beta	0.674
Diluted Shares Outstanding	31.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.88
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.875
Total Debt	13.96
Total Equity	571.98
Total Capital	585.94
Debt Weighting	2.38
Equity Weighting	97.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	39.52	42.24	40.46	35.57	44.85	46.72	48.67	50.70	52.82	55.02
EBITDA	9.56	10.02	7.68	6.33	11.73	10.36	10.79	11.24	11.71	12.20
EBIT	5.57	6.15	3.20	1.72	7.62	5.45	5.68	5.92	6.16	6.42
Tax Rate	21.12%	23.19%	13.74%	12.20%	8.88%	15.82%	15.82%	15.82%	15.82%	15.82%
EBIAT	4.39	4.72	2.76	1.51	6.94	4.59	4.78	4.98	5.19	5.41
Depreciation	4	3.88	4.48	4.62	4.12	4.91	5.11	5.33	5.55	5.78
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-3.09	-0.64	1.57	0.60	-2.20	-0.50	-0.52	-0.54	-0.57
Accounts Payable	-	0.66	-0.39	-0.37	-0.91	1.70	0.22	0.22	0.23	0.24
Capital Expenditure	-	-0.39	-0.38	-0.33	-0.42	-0.44	-0.45	-0.47	-0.49	-0.51
UFCF	8.39	5.77	5.84	7	10.33	8.56	9.16	9.54	9.94	10.35
WACC
PV UFCF						8.02	8.04	7.84	7.65	7.47
SUM PV UFCF										39.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.74
Free cash flow (t + 1)	10.56
Terminal Value	222.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	160.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	199.76
Net Debt	4.56
Equity Value	195.19
Shares Outstanding	31.43
Equity Value Per Share	6.21