Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cybergun S.A. (ALCYB.PA)

0.38 €

+0.02 (+6.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.95 | 0.38 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 41.2933.7231.9928.2524.9422.0119.4317.1515.1413.3711.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -6.39-13.31-9.58-11.43-7.81-6.90-6.09-5.38-4.75-4.19-3.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -6.89-13.94-10.14-8.85-7.55-6.66-5.88-5.19-4.58-4.05-3.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.500.640.56-2.57-0.27-0.24-0.21-0.18-0.16-0.14-0.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1.931.541.792.951.571.391.231.080.960.840.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 15.7410.5010.498.518.247.276.425.6754.423.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.016.457.688.475.624.964.383.873.413.012.66
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.30-0.37-0.04-0.20-0.16-0.15-0.13-0.11-0.10-0.09-0.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.38
Beta 0.418
Diluted Shares Outstanding 46.16
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.779
Total Debt 5.91
Total Equity 17.54
Total Capital 23.46
Debt Weighting 25.21
Equity Weighting 74.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 41.2933.7231.9928.2524.9422.0119.4317.1515.1413.3711.80
EBITDA -6.39-13.31-9.58-11.43-7.81-6.90-6.09-5.38-4.75-4.19-3.70
EBIT -6.89-13.94-10.14-8.85-7.55-6.66-5.88-5.19-4.58-4.05-3.57
Tax Rate 3.81%-4.01%-6.92%-0.43%-0.79%3.63%-0.79%-0.79%-0.79%-0.79%-0.79%
EBIAT -6.62-14.50-10.85-8.89-7.61-6.42-5.93-5.23-4.62-4.08-3.60
Depreciation 0.500.640.56-2.57-0.27-0.24-0.21-0.18-0.16-0.14-0.13
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -5.230.011.980.270.970.850.750.660.590.52
Accounts Payable --0.561.230.79-2.86-0.66-0.58-0.51-0.45-0.40-0.35
Capital Expenditure -0.30-0.37-0.04-0.20-0.16-2.77-0.13-0.11-0.10-0.09-0.08
UFCF -6.43-9.56-9.08-8.89-10.63-6.50-5.99-5.29-4.67-4.12-3.64
WACC
PV UFCF -10.63-6.21-5.48-4.63-3.91-3.30-2.78
SUM PV UFCF -21.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3.71
Terminal Value -144.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -115.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -136.54
Net Debt -0.31
Equity Value -136.23
Shares Outstanding 46.16
Equity Value Per Share -2.95