Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cybergun S.A. (ALCYB.PA)
0.0284 €
-0.00 (-5.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 31.99 | 28.25 | 40.27 | 33.04 | 43.33 | 48.10 | 53.40 | 59.28 | 65.81 | 73.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -7.52 | -7.21 | -16.20 | -4.87 | 2.16 | -9.53 | -10.57 | -11.74 | -13.03 | -14.47 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -8.08 | -4.63 | -14.72 | -3.66 | 3.76 | -7.75 | -8.61 | -9.56 | -10.61 | -11.78 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.56 | -2.57 | -1.48 | -1.22 | -1.60 | -1.77 | -1.97 | -2.18 | -2.42 | -2.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.79 | 2.95 | 7.12 | 6.23 | 4.88 | 6.14 | 6.81 | 7.56 | 8.40 | 9.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 11.63 | 8.39 | 3.86 | 8.14 | 11.44 | 12.19 | 13.53 | 15.02 | 16.67 | 18.51 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 10.49 | 8.51 | 8.37 | 20.16 | 26.12 | 19.72 | 21.89 | 24.30 | 26.98 | 29.95 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.68 | 8.47 | 5.64 | 11.01 | 8.43 | 11.62 | 12.90 | 14.32 | 15.89 | 17.65 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.04 | -0.20 | -0.16 | -0.13 | -0.18 | -0.20 | -0.22 | -0.24 | -0.27 | -0.30 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.0,284 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.226 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 46.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 65.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.75% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.503 |
| Total Debt | 6.73 |
| Total Equity | 1.31 |
| Total Capital | 8.04 |
| Debt Weighting | 83.69 |
| Equity Weighting | 16.31 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 31.99 | 28.25 | 40.27 | 33.04 | 43.33 | 48.10 | 53.40 | 59.28 | 65.81 | 73.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -7.52 | -7.21 | -16.20 | -4.87 | 2.16 | -9.53 | -10.57 | -11.74 | -13.03 | -14.47 |
| EBIT | -8.08 | -4.63 | -14.72 | -3.66 | 3.76 | -7.75 | -8.61 | -9.56 | -10.61 | -11.78 |
| Tax Rate | -6.92% | -0.43% | -2.06% | 3.80% | 65.28% | 11.93% | 11.93% | 11.93% | 11.93% | 11.93% |
| EBIAT | -8.64 | -4.65 | -15.02 | -3.52 | 1.30 | -6.83 | -7.58 | -8.41 | -9.34 | -10.37 |
| Depreciation | 0.56 | -2.57 | -1.48 | -1.22 | -1.60 | -1.77 | -1.97 | -2.18 | -2.42 | -2.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 3.24 | 4.52 | -4.28 | -3.30 | -0.74 | -1.34 | -1.49 | -1.65 | -1.84 |
| Inventories | - | 1.98 | 0.14 | -11.79 | -5.96 | 6.40 | -2.17 | -2.41 | -2.68 | -2.97 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.79 | -2.84 | 5.37 | -2.58 | 3.19 | 1.28 | 1.42 | 1.58 | 1.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.04 | -0.20 | -0.16 | -2.77 | -3.86 | -0.20 | -0.22 | -0.24 | -0.27 | -0.30 |
| UFCF | -8.12 | -1.41 | -14.84 | -15.57 | -12.32 | 0.06 | -12 | -13.32 | -14.79 | -16.42 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 0.05 | -11.45 | -12.42 | -13.47 | -14.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -51.90 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -16.74 |
| Terminal Value | -4,651.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,139.33 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -4,191.22 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1.85 |
| Equity Value | -4,193.08 |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -90.82 |