Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alfen N.V. (ALFEN.AS)

98.5 €

+0.30 (+0.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 30.38 | 98.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 73.37100.18143.08189.01249.68339.29461.07626.56851.441,157.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4.012.4713.8823.8536.2130.3741.2756.0976.22103.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.42-0.018.6517.3627.6920.0927.3037.1050.4168.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.602.495.236.498.5110.2813.9818.9925.8135.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash -0.850.1352.1046.8840.1054.5074.06100.64136.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.499.5214.4119.9941.5834.9847.5464.6087.79119.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.5421.7926.7126.8148.3267.3391.50124.34168.97229.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.73-6.06-6.69-9.62-11.68-17.35-23.58-32.05-43.55-59.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 98.5
Beta 1.325
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.081
Total Debt 18.40
Total Equity 2,057.81
Total Capital 2,076.21
Debt Weighting 0.89
Equity Weighting 99.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 73.37100.18143.08189.01249.68339.29461.07626.56851.441,157.03
EBITDA 4.012.4713.8823.8536.2130.3741.2756.0976.22103.58
EBIT 2.42-0.018.6517.3627.6920.0927.3037.1050.4168.50
Tax Rate 24.81%5.40%28.06%27.69%19.66%21.12%21.12%21.12%21.12%21.12%
EBIAT 1.82-0.016.2312.5522.2515.8421.5329.2639.7654.03
Depreciation 1.602.495.236.498.5110.2813.9818.9925.8135.07
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --6.03-4.89-5.58-21.596.60-12.56-17.06-23.19-31.51
Accounts Payable -3.254.920.1021.5119.0124.1732.8444.6360.64
Capital Expenditure -3.73-6.06-6.69-9.62-11.68-17.35-23.58-32.05-43.55-59.18
UFCF -0.31-6.374.793.951934.3823.5431.9843.4659.06
WACC
PV UFCF 31.2519.4424.0129.6536.62
SUM PV UFCF 140.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 60.25
Terminal Value 750.26
Present Value of Terminal Value 465.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 606.19
Net Debt -28.48
Equity Value 634.67
Shares Outstanding 20.89
Equity Value Per Share 30.38