Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gévelot SA (ALGEV.PA)
232 €
+2.00 (+0.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 94.22 | 103.73 | 89.53 | 101.27 | 135.39 | 150.01 | 166.21 | 184.16 | 204.05 | 226.09 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 10.45 | 13.24 | 9.44 | 10.73 | 17.11 | 17.29 | 19.16 | 21.23 | 23.52 | 26.06 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 7.36 | 8.12 | 3.50 | 5.31 | 11.64 | 10.02 | 11.10 | 12.30 | 13.62 | 15.10 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3.09 | 5.12 | 5.94 | 5.43 | 5.47 | 7.28 | 8.06 | 8.93 | 9.90 | 10.97 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 174.48 | 160.71 | 154.41 | 147.35 | 128.87 | 225.99 | 250.40 | 277.44 | 307.41 | 340.61 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 38.75 | 48.55 | 50.59 | 61.33 | 74.54 | 78.02 | 86.45 | 95.78 | 106.13 | 117.59 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 26.25 | 33.53 | 32.78 | 36.88 | 48.12 | 50.63 | 56.10 | 62.15 | 68.87 | 76.30 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 12.62 | 12.09 | 8.36 | 14.70 | 20.40 | 19.19 | 21.27 | 23.56 | 26.11 | 28.93 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2.14 | -4.31 | -2.43 | -12.66 | -3.11 | -7.18 | -7.96 | -8.82 | -9.77 | -10.83 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 232 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.485 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.77 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 16.37 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.05% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.645 |
Total Debt | 6.53 |
Total Equity | 177.74 |
Total Capital | 184.28 |
Debt Weighting | 3.55 |
Equity Weighting | 96.45 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 94.22 | 103.73 | 89.53 | 101.27 | 135.39 | 150.01 | 166.21 | 184.16 | 204.05 | 226.09 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 10.45 | 13.24 | 9.44 | 10.73 | 17.11 | 17.29 | 19.16 | 21.23 | 23.52 | 26.06 |
EBIT | 7.36 | 8.12 | 3.50 | 5.31 | 11.64 | 10.02 | 11.10 | 12.30 | 13.62 | 15.10 |
Tax Rate | 24.25% | 17.98% | 59.47% | 9.64% | 16.37% | 25.54% | 25.54% | 25.54% | 25.54% | 25.54% |
EBIAT | 5.57 | 6.66 | 1.42 | 4.80 | 9.74 | 7.46 | 8.26 | 9.16 | 10.14 | 11.24 |
Depreciation | 3.09 | 5.12 | 5.94 | 5.43 | 5.47 | 7.28 | 8.06 | 8.93 | 9.90 | 10.97 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -9.80 | -2.05 | -10.73 | -13.21 | -3.48 | -8.43 | -9.34 | -10.34 | -11.46 |
Inventories | - | -7.28 | 0.75 | -4.10 | -11.24 | -2.51 | -5.47 | -6.06 | -6.71 | -7.44 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.53 | -3.73 | 6.34 | 5.70 | -1.20 | 2.07 | 2.30 | 2.54 | 2.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -2.14 | -4.32 | -2.43 | -12.66 | -3.11 | -7.18 | -7.96 | -8.82 | -9.77 | -10.83 |
UFCF | 6.52 | -10.14 | -0.09 | -10.94 | -6.65 | 0.36 | -3.45 | -3.83 | -4.24 | -4.70 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 0.34 | -3.04 | -3.16 | -3.29 | -3.42 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -12.58 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.55 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -4.79 |
Terminal Value | -105.34 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -76.71 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -89.29 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -25.02 |
Equity Value | -64.27 |
Shares Outstanding | 0.77 |
Equity Value Per Share | -83.88 |