Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gévelot SA (ALGEV.PA)

232 €

+2.00 (+0.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -83.88 | 232 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 94.22103.7389.53101.27135.39150.01166.21184.16204.05226.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10.4513.249.4410.7317.1117.2919.1621.2323.5226.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7.368.123.505.3111.6410.0211.1012.3013.6215.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.095.125.945.435.477.288.068.939.9010.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 174.48160.71154.41147.35128.87225.99250.40277.44307.41340.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 38.7548.5550.5961.3374.5478.0286.4595.78106.13117.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 26.2533.5332.7836.8848.1250.6356.1062.1568.8776.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12.6212.098.3614.7020.4019.1921.2723.5626.1128.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.14-4.31-2.43-12.66-3.11-7.18-7.96-8.82-9.77-10.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 232
Beta 0.485
Diluted Shares Outstanding 0.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.645
Total Debt 6.53
Total Equity 177.74
Total Capital 184.28
Debt Weighting 3.55
Equity Weighting 96.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 94.22103.7389.53101.27135.39150.01166.21184.16204.05226.09
EBITDA 10.4513.249.4410.7317.1117.2919.1621.2323.5226.06
EBIT 7.368.123.505.3111.6410.0211.1012.3013.6215.10
Tax Rate 24.25%17.98%59.47%9.64%16.37%25.54%25.54%25.54%25.54%25.54%
EBIAT 5.576.661.424.809.747.468.269.1610.1411.24
Depreciation 3.095.125.945.435.477.288.068.939.9010.97
Accounts Receivable --9.80-2.05-10.73-13.21-3.48-8.43-9.34-10.34-11.46
Inventories --7.280.75-4.10-11.24-2.51-5.47-6.06-6.71-7.44
Accounts Payable --0.53-3.736.345.70-1.202.072.302.542.82
Capital Expenditure -2.14-4.32-2.43-12.66-3.11-7.18-7.96-8.82-9.77-10.83
UFCF 6.52-10.14-0.09-10.94-6.650.36-3.45-3.83-4.24-4.70
WACC
PV UFCF 0.34-3.04-3.16-3.29-3.42
SUM PV UFCF -12.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.79
Terminal Value -105.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -76.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -89.29
Net Debt -25.02
Equity Value -64.27
Shares Outstanding 0.77
Equity Value Per Share -83.88