Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gévelot SA (ALGEV.PA)

180.5 €

-4.00 (-2.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.52 | 180.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 89.4994.22103.7389.53101.27105.01108.90112.93117.11121.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15.4210.8715.6716.8113.4415.9516.5417.1517.7818.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 10.867.9110.482.477.848.648.969.299.649.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.562.965.1814.345.607.317.587.868.158.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 174.81174.48160.73154.41147.36179.25185.88192.76199.90207.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 27.1026.2533.1632.6136.5534.1635.4236.7338.0939.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.1912.6212.098.5214.7512.9513.4313.9214.4414.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.01-2.14-4.31-2.43-12.66-4.79-4.96-5.15-5.34-5.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 180.5
Beta 0.487
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.826
Total Debt 4.74
Total Equity 5,672.64
Total Capital 5,677.38
Debt Weighting 0.08
Equity Weighting 99.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 89.4994.22103.7389.53101.27105.01108.90112.93117.11121.45
EBITDA 15.4210.8715.6716.8113.4415.9516.5417.1517.7818.44
EBIT 10.867.9110.482.477.848.648.969.299.649.99
Tax Rate 92.01%24.63%17.98%59.47%9.64%40.74%40.74%40.74%40.74%40.74%
EBIAT 0.875.968.6017.085.125.315.515.715.92
Depreciation 4.562.965.1814.345.607.317.587.868.158.45
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0.86-6.920.55-3.942.39-1.26-1.31-1.36-1.41
Accounts Payable -1.43-0.53-3.576.23-1.810.480.500.520.53
Capital Expenditure -1.01-2.14-4.32-2.43-12.66-4.79-4.96-5.15-5.34-5.53
UFCF 4.429.072.029.902.308.237.147.407.687.96
WACC
PV UFCF 7.786.386.256.126
SUM PV UFCF 32.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.82
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8.12
Terminal Value 212.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 160.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 192.73
Net Debt -106.61
Equity Value 299.34
Shares Outstanding 31.43
Equity Value Per Share 9.52