Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alimera Sciences, Inc. (ALIM)

$3.8347

-0.32 (-7.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -32.79 | 3.8347 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 35.9146.9753.9450.8259.0367.2976.7187.4599.70113.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -13.57-8.86-2.722.654.06-6.68-7.61-8.68-9.89-11.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -16.26-11.50-5.36-0.031.48-10.40-11.85-13.51-15.40-17.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.682.652.642.682.583.724.244.835.516.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 24.0713.049.4311.2116.5121.8424.9028.3832.3636.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 11.4317.2619.3317.2019.1322.9726.1929.8534.0338.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.512.411.392.752.682.943.353.824.354.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.916.367.087.468.719.7611.1312.6814.4616.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.24-0.17-0.17-0.62-0.62-0.49-0.56-0.63-0.72-0.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.8,347
Beta 1.377
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5.12
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.191
Total Debt 43.57
Total Equity 19.62
Total Capital 63.19
Debt Weighting 68.95
Equity Weighting 31.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 35.9146.9753.9450.8259.0367.2976.7187.4599.70113.66
EBITDA -13.57-8.86-2.722.654.06-6.68-7.61-8.68-9.89-11.28
EBIT -16.26-11.50-5.36-0.031.48-10.40-11.85-13.51-15.40-17.56
Tax Rate -0.75%-0.65%-2.11%1.26%-11.13%-2.68%-2.68%-2.68%-2.68%-2.68%
EBIAT -16.38-11.58-5.47-0.031.64-10.67-12.17-13.87-15.81-18.03
Depreciation 2.682.652.642.682.583.724.244.835.516.28
Accounts Receivable --5.82-2.072.13-1.93-3.84-3.22-3.67-4.18-4.76
Inventories --0.901.02-1.360.07-0.26-0.41-0.47-0.53-0.61
Accounts Payable -0.450.720.381.241.051.371.561.782.02
Capital Expenditure -0.24-0.17-0.17-0.62-0.62-0.49-0.56-0.63-0.72-0.83
UFCF -13.93-15.38-3.343.192.99-10.49-10.75-12.25-13.97-15.92
WACC
PV UFCF -9.39-8.61-8.78-8.96-9.14
SUM PV UFCF -44.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) -16.24
Terminal Value -166.90
Present Value of Terminal Value -95.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -140.74
Net Debt 27.06
Equity Value -167.80
Shares Outstanding 5.12
Equity Value Per Share -32.79