Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alimera Sciences, Inc. (ALIM)
$3.495
+0.01 (+0.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 46.97 | 53.94 | 50.82 | 59.03 | 54.13 | 56.42 | 58.80 | 61.29 | 63.88 | 66.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -7.02 | -2.63 | 2.17 | 2.38 | -8.93 | -3.16 | -3.30 | -3.44 | -3.58 | -3.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -9.67 | -5.27 | -0.50 | -0.20 | -11.64 | -6 | -6.26 | -6.52 | -6.80 | -7.08 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.65 | 2.64 | 2.68 | 2.58 | 2.71 | 2.84 | 2.96 | 3.08 | 3.21 | 3.35 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 13.04 | 9.43 | 11.21 | 16.51 | 5.27 | 11.85 | 12.35 | 12.87 | 13.42 | 13.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 17.26 | 19.33 | 17.20 | 19.13 | 19.61 | 19.75 | 20.59 | 21.46 | 22.37 | 23.31 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2.41 | 1.39 | 2.75 | 2.68 | 1.61 | 2.32 | 2.42 | 2.53 | 2.63 | 2.74 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.36 | 7.08 | 7.46 | 8.71 | 10.09 | 8.43 | 8.79 | 9.16 | 9.55 | 9.95 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.62 | -0.62 | -0.26 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.46 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.495 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.433 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.15 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 13.27% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.069 |
| Total Debt | 44.33 |
| Total Equity | 24.45 |
| Total Capital | 68.78 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.45 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.55 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 46.97 | 53.94 | 50.82 | 59.03 | 54.13 | 56.42 | 58.80 | 61.29 | 63.88 | 66.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -7.02 | -2.63 | 2.17 | 2.38 | -8.93 | -3.16 | -3.30 | -3.44 | -3.58 | -3.73 |
| EBIT | -9.67 | -5.27 | -0.50 | -0.20 | -11.64 | -6 | -6.26 | -6.52 | -6.80 | -7.08 |
| Tax Rate | -0.65% | -2.11% | 1.26% | -11.13% | -0.15% | -2.56% | -2.56% | -2.56% | -2.56% | -2.56% |
| EBIAT | -9.73 | -5.39 | -0.49 | -0.22 | -11.66 | -6.16 | -6.42 | -6.69 | -6.97 | -7.26 |
| Depreciation | 2.65 | 2.64 | 2.68 | 2.58 | 2.71 | 2.84 | 2.96 | 3.08 | 3.21 | 3.35 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.07 | 2.13 | -1.93 | -0.48 | -0.14 | -0.83 | -0.87 | -0.91 | -0.95 |
| Inventories | - | 1.02 | -1.36 | 0.07 | 1.07 | -0.72 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.11 | -0.11 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.72 | 0.38 | 1.24 | 1.38 | -1.66 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.62 | -0.62 | -0.26 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.46 |
| UFCF | -7.26 | -3.25 | 2.72 | 1.12 | -7.24 | -6.22 | -4.44 | -4.63 | -4.82 | -5.03 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -5.53 | -3.51 | -3.25 | -3.01 | -2.79 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -18.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.49 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5.13 |
| Terminal Value | -48.86 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -27.13 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -45.22 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 39.05 |
| Equity Value | -84.27 |
| Shares Outstanding | 7 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -12.04 |