Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lanson-BCC (ALLAN.PA)
33 €
+0.50 (+1.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 261.59 | 277.50 | 250.29 | 223.12 | 271.09 | 275.78 | 280.55 | 285.40 | 290.34 | 295.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 26.38 | 28.47 | 24.05 | 19.38 | 38.96 | 29.24 | 29.74 | 30.26 | 30.78 | 31.31 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 20.55 | 22.17 | 18.12 | 13.42 | 31.04 | 22.37 | 22.75 | 23.15 | 23.55 | 23.95 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 5.83 | 6.30 | 5.93 | 5.96 | 7.91 | 6.87 | 6.99 | 7.11 | 7.24 | 7.36 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 24.67 | 7.37 | 10.18 | 11.70 | 10.57 | 13.95 | 14.19 | 14.44 | 14.69 | 14.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 523.30 | 542.17 | 555.66 | 537.88 | 486.57 | 572.51 | 582.41 | 592.49 | 602.74 | 613.17 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 114.64 | 117.12 | 102.58 | 75.46 | 66.23 | 102.19 | 103.95 | 105.75 | 107.58 | 109.44 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.16 | -6.29 | -9.26 | -5.01 | -7.22 | -8.14 | -8.28 | -8.42 | -8.57 | -8.72 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 33 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.538 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.47 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.148 |
| Total Debt | 492.50 |
| Total Equity | 1,038.48 |
| Total Capital | 1,530.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.17 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.83 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 261.59 | 277.50 | 250.29 | 223.12 | 271.09 | 275.78 | 280.55 | 285.40 | 290.34 | 295.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 26.38 | 28.47 | 24.05 | 19.38 | 38.96 | 29.24 | 29.74 | 30.26 | 30.78 | 31.31 |
| EBIT | 20.55 | 22.17 | 18.12 | 13.42 | 31.04 | 22.37 | 22.75 | 23.15 | 23.55 | 23.95 |
| Tax Rate | 29.12% | 30.26% | 28.30% | 33.37% | 28.96% | 30.00% | 30.00% | 30.00% | 30.00% | 30.00% |
| EBIAT | 14.57 | 15.46 | 12.99 | 8.94 | 22.05 | 15.66 | 15.93 | 16.20 | 16.48 | 16.77 |
| Depreciation | 5.83 | 6.30 | 5.93 | 5.96 | 7.91 | 6.87 | 6.99 | 7.11 | 7.24 | 7.36 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -18.87 | -13.50 | 17.78 | 51.31 | -85.94 | -9.90 | -10.08 | -10.25 | -10.43 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.48 | -14.54 | -27.12 | -9.23 | 35.96 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.86 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.16 | -6.29 | -9.26 | -5.01 | -7.21 | -8.14 | -8.28 | -8.42 | -8.57 | -8.72 |
| UFCF | 10.24 | -0.91 | -18.37 | 0.55 | 64.83 | -35.59 | 6.50 | 6.61 | 6.73 | 6.84 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -34.11 | 5.97 | 5.82 | 5.67 | 5.53 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -11.11 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.35 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6.98 |
| Terminal Value | 297.06 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 240.09 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 228.98 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 481.93 |
| Equity Value | -252.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.47 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -8.04 |