Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Almirall, S.A. (ALM.MC)

9.13 €

-0.22 (-2.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12.05 | 9.13 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 756.93855.341,614.85827.19863.25987.081,128.681,290.591,475.721,687.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 224.91282.42226.09225.31186.13247.82283.37324.02370.50423.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 134.73153103105.3865.49123.17140.84161.04184.14210.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 90.18129.43123.08119.94120.64124.65142.53162.98186.36213.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 86.27117.29165.67207.39248.82176.22201.50230.41263.46301.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 231.78245.11184.04161.88159.22214.57245.35280.54320.79366.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 92.24106130.05118.48129.95122.41139.97160.05183.01209.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 191.02222.48162.14177.80184.29205.57235.06268.78307.33351.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -598.48-135.09-76.53-71.15-116.48-240.24-274.70-314.11-359.17-410.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.13
Beta 0.432
Diluted Shares Outstanding 180.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 86.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.580
Total Debt 403.88
Total Equity 1,650.32
Total Capital 2,054.20
Debt Weighting 19.66
Equity Weighting 80.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 756.93855.341,614.85827.19863.25987.081,128.681,290.591,475.721,687.41
EBITDA 224.91282.42226.09225.31186.13247.82283.37324.02370.50423.65
EBIT 134.73153103105.3865.49123.17140.84161.04184.14210.56
Tax Rate -3.60%17.44%6.26%-349.74%86.20%-48.69%-48.69%-48.69%-48.69%-48.69%
EBIAT 139.58126.3296.56473.929.04183.14209.41239.45273.80313.08
Depreciation 90.18129.43123.08119.94120.64124.65142.53162.98186.36213.09
Accounts Receivable --13.3461.0722.162.66-55.34-30.78-35.20-40.24-46.02
Inventories --13.76-24.0611.58-11.477.54-17.56-20.08-22.96-26.25
Accounts Payable -31.46-60.3415.666.4921.2829.4933.7238.5644.09
Capital Expenditure -598.48-135.09-76.53-71.15-116.48-240.24-274.70-314.11-359.17-410.69
UFCF -368.71125.02119.80572.1010.8641.0258.3966.7676.3487.29
WACC
PV UFCF 38.9452.6257.126267.30
SUM PV UFCF 277.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) 89.04
Terminal Value 2,665.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,055.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,333.25
Net Debt 155.50
Equity Value 2,177.76
Shares Outstanding 180.76
Equity Value Per Share 12.05