Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Almirall, S.A. (ALM.MC)

8.69 €

+0.01 (+0.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -25.78 | 8.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 639.38756.93855.34807.43827.19885.58948.091,0151,086.641,163.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -217.40165.15272.52213.35123.82108.16115.80123.97132.72142.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -321.0674.97143.0990.273.89-21.13-22.62-24.22-25.93-27.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 103.6690.18129.43123.09119.94129.30138.42148.19158.65169.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 313.8087.35117.38165.67207.39212.42227.41243.46260.64279.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 82.8492.24106130.05118.48120.37128.87137.97147.71158.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 140.60191.02222.48162.14177.80203.35217.70233.07249.52267.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -68.78-598.48-135.09-76.53-71.15-219.09-234.55-251.10-268.83-287.80
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.69
Beta 0.367
Diluted Shares Outstanding 188.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -349.74
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.476
Total Debt 398.42
Total Equity 1,641.81
Total Capital 2,040.23
Debt Weighting 19.53
Equity Weighting 80.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 639.38756.93855.34807.43827.19885.58948.091,0151,086.641,163.34
EBITDA -217.40165.15272.52213.35123.82108.16115.80123.97132.72142.09
EBIT -321.0674.97143.0990.273.89-21.13-22.62-24.22-25.93-27.76
Tax Rate 5.33%-3.60%17.44%6.26%-349.74%-64.86%-64.86%-64.86%-64.86%-64.86%
EBIAT -303.9677.67118.1484.6217.48-34.84-37.30-39.93-42.75-45.77
Depreciation 103.6690.18129.43123.09119.94129.30138.42148.19158.65169.85
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --9.40-13.76-24.0611.58-1.90-8.50-9.10-9.74-10.43
Accounts Payable -50.4231.46-60.3415.6625.5514.3515.3716.4517.61
Capital Expenditure -68.78-598.48-135.09-76.53-71.15-219.09-234.55-251.10-268.83-287.80
UFCF -269.08-389.61130.1846.7893.50-100.98-127.57-136.57-146.21-156.53
WACC
PV UFCF -96.13-115.62-117.84-120.11-122.41
SUM PV UFCF -572.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) -159.66
Terminal Value -5,252.07
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,107.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,679.42
Net Debt 191.93
Equity Value -4,871.35
Shares Outstanding 188.93
Equity Value Per Share -25.78