Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Almirall, S.A. (ALM.MC)
8.69 €
+0.01 (+0.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 639.38 | 756.93 | 855.34 | 807.43 | 827.19 | 885.58 | 948.09 | 1,015 | 1,086.64 | 1,163.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -217.40 | 165.15 | 272.52 | 213.35 | 123.82 | 108.16 | 115.80 | 123.97 | 132.72 | 142.09 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -321.06 | 74.97 | 143.09 | 90.27 | 3.89 | -21.13 | -22.62 | -24.22 | -25.93 | -27.76 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 103.66 | 90.18 | 129.43 | 123.09 | 119.94 | 129.30 | 138.42 | 148.19 | 158.65 | 169.85 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 313.80 | 87.35 | 117.38 | 165.67 | 207.39 | 212.42 | 227.41 | 243.46 | 260.64 | 279.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 82.84 | 92.24 | 106 | 130.05 | 118.48 | 120.37 | 128.87 | 137.97 | 147.71 | 158.13 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 140.60 | 191.02 | 222.48 | 162.14 | 177.80 | 203.35 | 217.70 | 233.07 | 249.52 | 267.13 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -68.78 | -598.48 | -135.09 | -76.53 | -71.15 | -219.09 | -234.55 | -251.10 | -268.83 | -287.80 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.69 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.367 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 188.93 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -349.74 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.26% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.476 |
| Total Debt | 398.42 |
| Total Equity | 1,641.81 |
| Total Capital | 2,040.23 |
| Debt Weighting | 19.53 |
| Equity Weighting | 80.47 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 639.38 | 756.93 | 855.34 | 807.43 | 827.19 | 885.58 | 948.09 | 1,015 | 1,086.64 | 1,163.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -217.40 | 165.15 | 272.52 | 213.35 | 123.82 | 108.16 | 115.80 | 123.97 | 132.72 | 142.09 |
| EBIT | -321.06 | 74.97 | 143.09 | 90.27 | 3.89 | -21.13 | -22.62 | -24.22 | -25.93 | -27.76 |
| Tax Rate | 5.33% | -3.60% | 17.44% | 6.26% | -349.74% | -64.86% | -64.86% | -64.86% | -64.86% | -64.86% |
| EBIAT | -303.96 | 77.67 | 118.14 | 84.62 | 17.48 | -34.84 | -37.30 | -39.93 | -42.75 | -45.77 |
| Depreciation | 103.66 | 90.18 | 129.43 | 123.09 | 119.94 | 129.30 | 138.42 | 148.19 | 158.65 | 169.85 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -9.40 | -13.76 | -24.06 | 11.58 | -1.90 | -8.50 | -9.10 | -9.74 | -10.43 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 50.42 | 31.46 | -60.34 | 15.66 | 25.55 | 14.35 | 15.37 | 16.45 | 17.61 |
| Capital Expenditure | -68.78 | -598.48 | -135.09 | -76.53 | -71.15 | -219.09 | -234.55 | -251.10 | -268.83 | -287.80 |
| UFCF | -269.08 | -389.61 | 130.18 | 46.78 | 93.50 | -100.98 | -127.57 | -136.57 | -146.21 | -156.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -96.13 | -115.62 | -117.84 | -120.11 | -122.41 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -572.11 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.04 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -159.66 |
| Terminal Value | -5,252.07 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,107.30 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -4,679.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 191.93 |
| Equity Value | -4,871.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 188.93 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -25.78 |