Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Almirall, S.A. (ALM.MC)

9.13 €

-0.22 (-2.35%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 12.05 | 9.13 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	756.93	855.34	1,614.85	827.19	863.25	987.08	1,128.68	1,290.59	1,475.72	1,687.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	224.91	282.42	226.09	225.31	186.13	247.82	283.37	324.02	370.50	423.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	134.73	153	103	105.38	65.49	123.17	140.84	161.04	184.14	210.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	90.18	129.43	123.08	119.94	120.64	124.65	142.53	162.98	186.36	213.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	86.27	117.29	165.67	207.39	248.82	176.22	201.50	230.41	263.46	301.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	231.78	245.11	184.04	161.88	159.22	214.57	245.35	280.54	320.79	366.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	92.24	106	130.05	118.48	129.95	122.41	139.97	160.05	183.01	209.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	191.02	222.48	162.14	177.80	184.29	205.57	235.06	268.78	307.33	351.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-598.48	-135.09	-76.53	-71.15	-116.48	-240.24	-274.70	-314.11	-359.17	-410.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 9.13
Beta	0.432
Diluted Shares Outstanding	180.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	86.20
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.580
Total Debt	403.88
Total Equity	1,650.32
Total Capital	2,054.20
Debt Weighting	19.66
Equity Weighting	80.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	756.93	855.34	1,614.85	827.19	863.25	987.08	1,128.68	1,290.59	1,475.72	1,687.41
EBITDA	224.91	282.42	226.09	225.31	186.13	247.82	283.37	324.02	370.50	423.65
EBIT	134.73	153	103	105.38	65.49	123.17	140.84	161.04	184.14	210.56
Tax Rate	-3.60%	17.44%	6.26%	-349.74%	86.20%	-48.69%	-48.69%	-48.69%	-48.69%	-48.69%
EBIAT	139.58	126.32	96.56	473.92	9.04	183.14	209.41	239.45	273.80	313.08
Depreciation	90.18	129.43	123.08	119.94	120.64	124.65	142.53	162.98	186.36	213.09
Accounts Receivable	-	-13.34	61.07	22.16	2.66	-55.34	-30.78	-35.20	-40.24	-46.02
Inventories	-	-13.76	-24.06	11.58	-11.47	7.54	-17.56	-20.08	-22.96	-26.25
Accounts Payable	-	31.46	-60.34	15.66	6.49	21.28	29.49	33.72	38.56	44.09
Capital Expenditure	-598.48	-135.09	-76.53	-71.15	-116.48	-240.24	-274.70	-314.11	-359.17	-410.69
UFCF	-368.71	125.02	119.80	572.10	10.86	41.02	58.39	66.76	76.34	87.29
WACC
PV UFCF						38.94	52.62	57.12	62	67.30
SUM PV UFCF										277.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.34
Free cash flow (t + 1)	89.04
Terminal Value	2,665.85
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,055.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,333.25
Net Debt	155.50
Equity Value	2,177.76
Shares Outstanding	180.76
Equity Value Per Share	12.05