Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Almirall, S.A. (ALM.MC)
9.13 €
-0.22 (-2.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 756.93 | 855.34 | 1,614.85 | 827.19 | 863.25 | 987.08 | 1,128.68 | 1,290.59 | 1,475.72 | 1,687.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 224.91 | 282.42 | 226.09 | 225.31 | 186.13 | 247.82 | 283.37 | 324.02 | 370.50 | 423.65 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 134.73 | 153 | 103 | 105.38 | 65.49 | 123.17 | 140.84 | 161.04 | 184.14 | 210.56 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 90.18 | 129.43 | 123.08 | 119.94 | 120.64 | 124.65 | 142.53 | 162.98 | 186.36 | 213.09 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 86.27 | 117.29 | 165.67 | 207.39 | 248.82 | 176.22 | 201.50 | 230.41 | 263.46 | 301.25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 231.78 | 245.11 | 184.04 | 161.88 | 159.22 | 214.57 | 245.35 | 280.54 | 320.79 | 366.81 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 92.24 | 106 | 130.05 | 118.48 | 129.95 | 122.41 | 139.97 | 160.05 | 183.01 | 209.26 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 191.02 | 222.48 | 162.14 | 177.80 | 184.29 | 205.57 | 235.06 | 268.78 | 307.33 | 351.42 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -598.48 | -135.09 | -76.53 | -71.15 | -116.48 | -240.24 | -274.70 | -314.11 | -359.17 | -410.69 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 9.13 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.432 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 180.76 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 86.20 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.25% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.580 |
Total Debt | 403.88 |
Total Equity | 1,650.32 |
Total Capital | 2,054.20 |
Debt Weighting | 19.66 |
Equity Weighting | 80.34 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 756.93 | 855.34 | 1,614.85 | 827.19 | 863.25 | 987.08 | 1,128.68 | 1,290.59 | 1,475.72 | 1,687.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 224.91 | 282.42 | 226.09 | 225.31 | 186.13 | 247.82 | 283.37 | 324.02 | 370.50 | 423.65 |
EBIT | 134.73 | 153 | 103 | 105.38 | 65.49 | 123.17 | 140.84 | 161.04 | 184.14 | 210.56 |
Tax Rate | -3.60% | 17.44% | 6.26% | -349.74% | 86.20% | -48.69% | -48.69% | -48.69% | -48.69% | -48.69% |
EBIAT | 139.58 | 126.32 | 96.56 | 473.92 | 9.04 | 183.14 | 209.41 | 239.45 | 273.80 | 313.08 |
Depreciation | 90.18 | 129.43 | 123.08 | 119.94 | 120.64 | 124.65 | 142.53 | 162.98 | 186.36 | 213.09 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -13.34 | 61.07 | 22.16 | 2.66 | -55.34 | -30.78 | -35.20 | -40.24 | -46.02 |
Inventories | - | -13.76 | -24.06 | 11.58 | -11.47 | 7.54 | -17.56 | -20.08 | -22.96 | -26.25 |
Accounts Payable | - | 31.46 | -60.34 | 15.66 | 6.49 | 21.28 | 29.49 | 33.72 | 38.56 | 44.09 |
Capital Expenditure | -598.48 | -135.09 | -76.53 | -71.15 | -116.48 | -240.24 | -274.70 | -314.11 | -359.17 | -410.69 |
UFCF | -368.71 | 125.02 | 119.80 | 572.10 | 10.86 | 41.02 | 58.39 | 66.76 | 76.34 | 87.29 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 38.94 | 52.62 | 57.12 | 62 | 67.30 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 277.98 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.34 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 89.04 |
Terminal Value | 2,665.85 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,055.27 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,333.25 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 155.50 |
Equity Value | 2,177.76 |
Shares Outstanding | 180.76 |
Equity Value Per Share | 12.05 |