Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Montagne et Neige Développement SA (ALMND.PA)
1.8 €
+0.05 (+2.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 76.44 | 87.60 | 100.39 | 115.04 | 131.84 | 151.08 | 173.14 | 198.41 | 227.38 | 260.57 | 298.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 5.52 | 4.03 | 5.93 | 6.80 | 7.79 | 8.93 | 10.23 | 11.72 | 13.44 | 15.40 | 17.65 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.43 | 0.50 | 2.54 | 2.91 | 3.34 | 3.82 | 4.38 | 5.02 | 5.76 | 6.60 | 7.56 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.09 | 3.53 | 3.39 | 3.89 | 4.45 | 5.10 | 5.85 | 6.70 | 7.68 | 8.80 | 10.09 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.10 | 0.80 | 1.84 | 2.11 | 2.41 | 2.76 | 3.17 | 3.63 | 4.16 | 4.77 | 5.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 24.61 | 20.65 | 28 | 32.08 | 36.77 | 42.13 | 48.28 | 55.33 | 63.41 | 72.67 | 83.27 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 22.27 | 34.90 | 34.62 | 39.68 | 45.47 | 52.11 | 59.71 | 68.43 | 78.42 | 89.87 | 102.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8.54 | -9.43 | -11.01 | -12.62 | -14.46 | -16.57 | -18.99 | -21.77 | -24.94 | -28.59 | -32.76 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.8 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.583 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2.51 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -2.53 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.39% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.004 |
| Total Debt | 119.26 |
| Total Equity | 4.52 |
| Total Capital | 123.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 96.35 |
| Equity Weighting | 3.65 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 76.44 | 87.60 | 100.39 | 115.04 | 131.84 | 151.08 | 173.14 | 198.41 | 227.38 | 260.57 | 298.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5.52 | 4.03 | 5.93 | 6.80 | 7.79 | 8.93 | 10.23 | 11.72 | 13.44 | 15.40 | 17.65 |
| EBIT | 3.43 | 0.50 | 2.54 | 2.91 | 3.34 | 3.82 | 4.38 | 5.02 | 5.76 | 6.60 | 7.56 |
| Tax Rate | -9.39% | -230.13% | -47.47% | 2.68% | 2.04% | -2.53% | -47.47% | -47.47% | -47.47% | -47.47% | -47.47% |
| EBIAT | 3.76 | 1.65 | 3.75 | 2.83 | 3.27 | 3.92 | 6.46 | 7.41 | 8.49 | 9.73 | 11.15 |
| Depreciation | 2.09 | 3.53 | 3.39 | 3.89 | 4.45 | 5.10 | 5.85 | 6.70 | 7.68 | 8.80 | 10.09 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 3.96 | -7.34 | -4.09 | -4.68 | -5.37 | -6.15 | -7.05 | -8.08 | -9.26 | -10.61 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 12.64 | -0.28 | 5.05 | 5.79 | 6.64 | 7.61 | 8.72 | 9.99 | 11.45 | 13.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8.54 | -9.43 | -11.01 | -3.02 | -3.81 | -4.08 | -18.99 | -21.77 | -24.94 | -28.59 | -32.76 |
| UFCF | -2.70 | 12.34 | -11.50 | -4.93 | -5.63 | -6.28 | -5.23 | -5.99 | -6.86 | -7.87 | -9.01 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -14.26 | -5.49 | -5.63 | -5.64 | -4.21 | -4.33 | -4.46 | -4.59 | -4.72 | ||
| SUM PV UFCF | -24.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.38 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -9.19 |
| Terminal Value | -98.02 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -57.18 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -82.04 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 114.12 |
| Equity Value | -196.16 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.51 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -78.05 |