Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NSC Groupe SA (ALNSC.PA)

58.5 €

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3,388.15 | 58.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 100.29103.0586.7230.9348.0245.3642.8440.4738.2236.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -12.388.333.04-9.405.35-1.82-1.72-1.62-1.53-1.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8.263.08-7.78-17.78-0.20-5.05-4.77-4.50-4.25-4.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -20.645.2510.818.375.553.233.052.882.722.57
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 27.8427.3716.8515.2916.5814.3113.5112.7612.0611.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 21.2027.2224.9418.7721.4216.4715.5614.7013.8813.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.1917.956.013.275.115.785.465.154.874.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.80-3.40-6.28-1.33-0.94-1.96-1.85-1.75-1.65-1.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 58.5
Beta 0.423
Diluted Shares Outstanding 0.46
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 237.70
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.691
Total Debt 22.90
Total Equity 26.99
Total Capital 49.90
Debt Weighting 45.90
Equity Weighting 54.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 100.29103.0586.7230.9348.0245.3642.8440.4738.2236.10
EBITDA -12.388.333.04-9.405.35-1.82-1.72-1.62-1.53-1.45
EBIT 8.263.08-7.78-17.78-0.20-5.05-4.77-4.50-4.25-4.02
Tax Rate 100.20%43.12%-160.23%-13.75%237.70%41.41%41.41%41.41%41.41%41.41%
EBIAT -0.021.75-20.23-20.220.28-2.96-2.79-2.64-2.49-2.35
Depreciation -20.645.2510.818.375.553.233.052.882.722.57
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --6.012.286.17-2.654.950.910.860.810.77
Accounts Payable --0.24-11.94-2.741.840.67-0.32-0.30-0.29-0.27
Capital Expenditure -4.80-3.40-6.28-1.33-0.94-1.96-1.85-1.75-1.65-1.56
UFCF -25.46-2.64-25.36-9.764.093.93-1-0.94-0.89-0.84
WACC
PV UFCF 3.85-0.96-0.89-0.82-0.76
SUM PV UFCF 0.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) -0.86
Terminal Value -1,716.91
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,551.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,550.83
Net Debt 12.55
Equity Value -1,563.39
Shares Outstanding 0.46
Equity Value Per Share -3,388.15