Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Omer-Decugis & Cie SA (ALODC.PA)
4.84 €
+0.05 (+1.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 104.25 | 106.15 | 112.29 | 119.66 | 137.60 | 147.64 | 158.40 | 169.96 | 182.35 | 195.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2.36 | 3.04 | 1.91 | 2.94 | 3.54 | 3.50 | 3.76 | 4.03 | 4.33 | 4.64 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.02 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.32 | 2.82 | 2.73 | 2.93 | 3.14 | 3.37 | 3.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.34 | 0.64 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.99 | 0.13 | 0.55 | 2.81 | 18.32 | 5.09 | 5.46 | 5.86 | 6.28 | 6.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 4.96 | 4.69 | 4.65 | 4.76 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.98 | 7.48 | 8.03 | 8.62 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 13.52 | 11.43 | 13.25 | 14.90 | 11.84 | 16.71 | 17.93 | 19.24 | 20.64 | 22.14 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6.91 | -2.61 | -1.19 | -9.55 | -3.59 | -6.12 | -6.57 | -7.05 | -7.56 | -8.12 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.84 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.000 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 12.71 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.31% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.518 |
| Total Debt | 17.21 |
| Total Equity | 29.04 |
| Total Capital | 46.25 |
| Debt Weighting | 37.21 |
| Equity Weighting | 62.79 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 104.25 | 106.15 | 112.29 | 119.66 | 137.60 | 147.64 | 158.40 | 169.96 | 182.35 | 195.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2.36 | 3.04 | 1.91 | 2.94 | 3.54 | 3.50 | 3.76 | 4.03 | 4.33 | 4.64 |
| EBIT | 2.02 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.32 | 2.82 | 2.73 | 2.93 | 3.14 | 3.37 | 3.62 |
| Tax Rate | 24.43% | 26.57% | 28.09% | -104.06% | 12.71% | -2.45% | -2.45% | -2.45% | -2.45% | -2.45% |
| EBIAT | 1.53 | 1.77 | 0.86 | 4.73 | 2.46 | 2.80 | 3 | 3.22 | 3.46 | 3.71 |
| Depreciation | 0.34 | 0.64 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 0.27 | 0.04 | -0.10 | -1.74 | -0.01 | -0.47 | -0.51 | -0.55 | -0.59 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.09 | 1.82 | 1.65 | -3.06 | 4.87 | 1.22 | 1.31 | 1.40 | 1.51 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6.91 | -2.61 | -1.19 | -9.55 | -3.59 | -6.12 | -6.57 | -7.05 | -7.56 | -8.12 |
| UFCF | -5.04 | -2.03 | 2.24 | -2.65 | -5.21 | 2.31 | -2 | -2.14 | -2.30 | -2.46 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2.25 | -1.89 | -1.98 | -2.06 | -2.16 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -5.84 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.70 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2.51 |
| Terminal Value | -359.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -314.32 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -320.16 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -1.11 |
| Equity Value | -319.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 6 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -53.18 |