Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Poujoulat SA (ALPJT.PA)
26 €
-0.20 (-0.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 220.01 | 231.96 | 241.76 | 245.21 | 302.24 | 328.19 | 356.37 | 386.97 | 420.19 | 456.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 11.72 | 10.15 | 14.62 | 19.70 | 31.11 | 22.37 | 24.29 | 26.37 | 28.64 | 31.10 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.72 | 1.45 | 3.52 | 9.66 | 21.02 | 9.62 | 10.45 | 11.35 | 12.32 | 13.38 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.01 | 8.70 | 11.09 | 10.05 | 10.09 | 12.74 | 13.84 | 15.03 | 16.32 | 17.72 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 8.33 | 1.93 | 8.46 | 15.19 | 24.16 | 14.64 | 15.90 | 17.26 | 18.75 | 20.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 39.37 | 40.91 | 43.03 | 57.21 | 54.19 | 62.09 | 67.42 | 73.20 | 79.49 | 86.31 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 22.07 | 19.73 | 16.47 | 20.72 | 33.10 | 29.37 | 31.89 | 34.63 | 37.60 | 40.83 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -9.76 | -10.50 | -23.74 | -15.06 | -15.23 | -19.67 | -21.35 | -23.19 | -25.18 | -27.34 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 26 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.596 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.72% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.413 |
| Total Debt | 71.85 |
| Total Equity | 49.40 |
| Total Capital | 121.25 |
| Debt Weighting | 59.26 |
| Equity Weighting | 40.74 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 220.01 | 231.96 | 241.76 | 245.21 | 302.24 | 328.19 | 356.37 | 386.97 | 420.19 | 456.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 11.72 | 10.15 | 14.62 | 19.70 | 31.11 | 22.37 | 24.29 | 26.37 | 28.64 | 31.10 |
| EBIT | 3.72 | 1.45 | 3.52 | 9.66 | 21.02 | 9.62 | 10.45 | 11.35 | 12.32 | 13.38 |
| Tax Rate | 33.46% | 73.31% | 28.83% | 32.96% | 33.55% | 40.42% | 40.42% | 40.42% | 40.42% | 40.42% |
| EBIAT | 2.47 | 0.39 | 2.51 | 6.47 | 13.97 | 5.73 | 6.23 | 6.76 | 7.34 | 7.97 |
| Depreciation | 8.01 | 8.70 | 11.09 | 10.05 | 10.09 | 12.74 | 13.84 | 15.03 | 16.32 | 17.72 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -1.54 | -2.11 | -14.18 | 3.02 | -7.90 | -5.33 | -5.79 | -6.29 | -6.82 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.34 | -3.26 | 4.26 | 12.37 | -3.73 | 2.52 | 2.74 | 2.97 | 3.23 |
| Capital Expenditure | -9.76 | -10.50 | -23.74 | -15.06 | -15.23 | -19.67 | -21.35 | -23.19 | -25.18 | -27.34 |
| UFCF | 0.72 | -5.30 | -15.51 | -8.46 | 24.23 | -12.81 | -4.10 | -4.45 | -4.83 | -5.25 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -12.43 | -3.86 | -4.07 | -4.29 | -4.52 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -29.17 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.04 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5.35 |
| Terminal Value | -514.69 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -443.12 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -472.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 47.69 |
| Equity Value | -519.98 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -273.67 |