Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alps Industries Limited (ALPSINDUS.NS)

2.05 ₹

+0.05 (+2.50%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -269.73 | 2.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,330.26	3,436.65	2,966.37	2,400.76	3,024.28	2,997.17	2,970.31	2,943.69	2,917.30	2,891.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-407.76	166.49	-518.06	-196.30	-173.29	-232.41	-230.32	-228.26	-226.21	-224.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-760.42	-171.88	-666.72	-277.09	-223.55	-415.08	-411.35	-407.67	-404.01	-400.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	352.66	338.37	148.65	80.79	50.26	182.67	181.03	179.41	177.80	176.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	15.42	29.93	36.01	8.59	5.80	18.57	18.40	18.24	18.07	17.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	331.34	296.31	256.50	294.02	298.38	295.71	293.06	290.43	287.83	285.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	196.96	231.30	246.17	314.94	222.13	248.21	245.98	243.78	241.59	239.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-23.23	-46.11	-2.45	-4.88	-3.63	-14.66	-14.53	-14.40	-14.27	-14.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.05
Beta	2.051
Diluted Shares Outstanding	39.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-0.01
After-tax Cost of Debt	8.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.207
Total Debt	7,145.88
Total Equity	80.18
Total Capital	7,226.06
Debt Weighting	98.89
Equity Weighting	1.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,330.26	3,436.65	2,966.37	2,400.76	3,024.28	2,997.17	2,970.31	2,943.69	2,917.30	2,891.15
EBITDA	-407.76	166.49	-518.06	-196.30	-173.29	-232.41	-230.32	-228.26	-226.21	-224.18
EBIT	-760.42	-171.88	-666.72	-277.09	-223.55	-415.08	-411.35	-407.67	-404.01	-400.39
Tax Rate	0.00%	0.01%	-0.51%	0.06%	-0.01%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.09%
EBIAT	-760.41	-171.86	-670.10	-276.93	-223.58	-415.45	-411.73	-408.04	-404.38	-400.76
Depreciation	352.66	338.37	148.65	80.79	50.26	182.67	181.03	179.41	177.80	176.21
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	35.03	39.81	-37.52	-4.36	2.67	2.65	2.63	2.60	2.58
Accounts Payable	-	34.34	14.86	68.78	-92.82	26.08	-2.22	-2.20	-2.18	-2.17
Capital Expenditure	-23.23	-46.11	-2.45	-4.88	-3.63	-14.66	-14.53	-14.40	-14.27	-14.14
UFCF	-430.98	189.77	-469.23	-169.77	-274.13	-218.69	-244.80	-242.60	-240.43	-238.27
WACC
PV UFCF						-201.52	-207.87	-189.83	-173.36	-158.32
SUM PV UFCF										-930.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.52
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-243.04
Terminal Value	-3,727.56
Present Value of Terminal Value	-2,476.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-3,407.60
Net Debt	7,142.57
Equity Value	-10,550.17
Shares Outstanding	39.11
Equity Value Per Share	-269.73