Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alps Industries Limited (ALPSINDUS.NS)

2.05 ₹

+0.05 (+2.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -269.73 | 2.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,330.263,436.652,966.372,400.763,024.282,997.172,970.312,943.692,917.302,891.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -407.76166.49-518.06-196.30-173.29-232.41-230.32-228.26-226.21-224.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -760.42-171.88-666.72-277.09-223.55-415.08-411.35-407.67-404.01-400.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 352.66338.37148.6580.7950.26182.67181.03179.41177.80176.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 15.4229.9336.018.595.8018.5718.4018.2418.0717.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 331.34296.31256.50294.02298.38295.71293.06290.43287.83285.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 196.96231.30246.17314.94222.13248.21245.98243.78241.59239.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -23.23-46.11-2.45-4.88-3.63-14.66-14.53-14.40-14.27-14.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.05
Beta 2.051
Diluted Shares Outstanding 39.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.207
Total Debt 7,145.88
Total Equity 80.18
Total Capital 7,226.06
Debt Weighting 98.89
Equity Weighting 1.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,330.263,436.652,966.372,400.763,024.282,997.172,970.312,943.692,917.302,891.15
EBITDA -407.76166.49-518.06-196.30-173.29-232.41-230.32-228.26-226.21-224.18
EBIT -760.42-171.88-666.72-277.09-223.55-415.08-411.35-407.67-404.01-400.39
Tax Rate 0.00%0.01%-0.51%0.06%-0.01%-0.09%-0.09%-0.09%-0.09%-0.09%
EBIAT -760.41-171.86-670.10-276.93-223.58-415.45-411.73-408.04-404.38-400.76
Depreciation 352.66338.37148.6580.7950.26182.67181.03179.41177.80176.21
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -35.0339.81-37.52-4.362.672.652.632.602.58
Accounts Payable -34.3414.8668.78-92.8226.08-2.22-2.20-2.18-2.17
Capital Expenditure -23.23-46.11-2.45-4.88-3.63-14.66-14.53-14.40-14.27-14.14
UFCF -430.98189.77-469.23-169.77-274.13-218.69-244.80-242.60-240.43-238.27
WACC
PV UFCF -201.52-207.87-189.83-173.36-158.32
SUM PV UFCF -930.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.52
Free cash flow (t + 1) -243.04
Terminal Value -3,727.56
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,476.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,407.60
Net Debt 7,142.57
Equity Value -10,550.17
Shares Outstanding 39.11
Equity Value Per Share -269.73