Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Serma Group Société anonyme (ALSER.PA)

312 €

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 129.30 | 312 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 97.31107.79140.59116.39144.52161.92181.42203.26227.73255.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 22.4324.8024.5817.0828.3131.6735.4939.7644.5549.91
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 20.2522.3621.1213.4824.6727.6030.9234.6438.8243.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.182.443.463.613.644.084.575.125.736.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 21.4824.4133.4742.0442.0643.3248.5354.3760.9268.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.656.966.4078.669.3410.4611.7213.1314.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.0715.8716.6815.4511.0219.0621.3623.9326.8130.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.33-0.19-0.14-3.28-5.08-2.25-2.52-2.82-3.16-3.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 312
Beta -0.330
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 2.248
Total Debt 34.21
Total Equity 33,535.63
Total Capital 33,569.85
Debt Weighting 0.10
Equity Weighting 99.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 97.31107.79140.59116.39144.52161.92181.42203.26227.73255.15
EBITDA 22.4324.8024.5817.0828.3131.6735.4939.7644.5549.91
EBIT 20.2522.3621.1213.4824.6727.6030.9234.6438.8243.49
Tax Rate 21.33%22.62%29.18%23.03%23.00%23.83%23.83%23.83%23.83%23.83%
EBIAT 15.9317.3114.9510.3718.9921.0223.5526.3929.5633.12
Depreciation 2.182.443.463.613.644.084.575.125.736.42
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --1.310.56-0.59-1.66-0.68-1.12-1.26-1.41-1.58
Accounts Payable -4.800.81-1.24-4.438.052.292.572.883.23
Capital Expenditure -0.33-0.19-0.14-3.28-5.08-2.25-2.52-2.82-3.16-3.55
UFCF 17.7823.0519.658.8611.4630.2226.7729.9933.6037.65
WACC
PV UFCF 29.5525.6028.0530.7433.68
SUM PV UFCF 147.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.25
Free cash flow (t + 1) 38.40
Terminal Value 15,360.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,743.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,890.71
Net Debt -7.61
Equity Value 13,898.32
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share 129.30