Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)

$3.895

+0.22 (+6.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.11 | 3.895 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,632.261,515.371,424.88897.021,207.891,161.021,115.961,072.661,031.03991.02
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16.30-2.85-20.8533.0874.4321.3520.5319.7318.9618.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -22.35-43.70-68.762.8151.14-10.52-10.12-9.72-9.35-8.98
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 38.6540.8547.9130.2723.2931.8830.6429.4528.3127.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 49.4926.631947.6750.6136.2834.8833.5232.2230.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 81.0968.2574.3143.4986.8962.0659.6657.3455.1252.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 61.5557.8260.6041.7754.3748.7646.8645.0543.3041.62
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 39.7448.1829.2813.0523.2525.6524.6623.7022.7821.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.87-15.15-3.28-6.58-16.38-10.68-10.26-9.87-9.48-9.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.895
Beta 2.523
Diluted Shares Outstanding 58.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.642
Total Debt 63.65
Total Equity 228.28
Total Capital 291.93
Debt Weighting 21.80
Equity Weighting 78.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,632.261,515.371,424.88897.021,207.891,161.021,115.961,072.661,031.03991.02
EBITDA 16.30-2.85-20.8533.0874.4321.3520.5319.7318.9618.23
EBIT -22.35-43.70-68.762.8151.14-10.52-10.12-9.72-9.35-8.98
Tax Rate 8.94%12.01%12.19%12.62%3.09%9.77%9.77%9.77%9.77%9.77%
EBIAT -20.35-38.46-60.382.4649.56-9.50-9.13-8.77-8.43-8.11
Depreciation 38.6540.8547.9130.2723.2931.8830.6429.4528.3127.21
Accounts Receivable -12.84-6.0630.82-43.4024.822.412.322.232.14
Inventories -3.73-2.7818.83-12.615.621.891.821.751.68
Accounts Payable -8.44-18.90-16.2310.202.40-1-0.96-0.92-0.88
Capital Expenditure -20.87-15.15-3.28-6.58-16.38-10.68-10.26-9.87-9.48-9.11
UFCF -2.5712.25-43.4959.5610.6744.5514.5613.9913.4512.93
WACC
PV UFCF 39.2811.319.598.136.89
SUM PV UFCF 75.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) 13.18
Terminal Value 115.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 61.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 136.70
Net Debt 13.04
Equity Value 123.66
Shares Outstanding 58.61
Equity Value Per Share 2.11