Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Altri, SGPS, S.A. (ALTR.LS)
4.274 €
+0.03 (+0.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 777.61 | 735.54 | 608.58 | 785.22 | 1,051.90 | 1,157.92 | 1,274.63 | 1,403.10 | 1,544.53 | 1,700.20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 332.63 | 231.80 | 121.86 | 225.01 | 318.16 | 354.83 | 390.59 | 429.96 | 473.29 | 521 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 272.43 | 174.86 | 74.74 | 164.22 | 236.72 | 265.18 | 291.91 | 321.33 | 353.71 | 389.37 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 60.20 | 56.95 | 47.12 | 60.79 | 81.44 | 89.65 | 98.68 | 108.63 | 119.58 | 131.63 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 240.77 | 181.34 | 254.57 | 238.94 | 233.61 | 347.57 | 382.60 | 421.17 | 463.62 | 510.35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 129 | 130.58 | 112.88 | 138.43 | 185.45 | 204.14 | 224.72 | 247.36 | 272.30 | 299.74 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 70.10 | 85.68 | 74.02 | 81.55 | 110.90 | 124.49 | 137.03 | 150.85 | 166.05 | 182.79 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 123.71 | 102.38 | 104.10 | 134.74 | 108.74 | 172.37 | 189.75 | 208.87 | 229.92 | 253.10 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -64.92 | -71.10 | -37.37 | -65.11 | -45.32 | -85.12 | -93.70 | -103.15 | -113.54 | -124.99 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.274 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.164 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 208.75 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.50 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.48% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.093 |
Total Debt | 642.71 |
Total Equity | 892.20 |
Total Capital | 1,534.92 |
Debt Weighting | 41.87 |
Equity Weighting | 58.13 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 777.61 | 735.54 | 608.58 | 785.22 | 1,051.90 | 1,157.92 | 1,274.63 | 1,403.10 | 1,544.53 | 1,700.20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 332.63 | 231.80 | 121.86 | 225.01 | 318.16 | 354.83 | 390.59 | 429.96 | 473.29 | 521 |
EBIT | 272.43 | 174.86 | 74.74 | 164.22 | 236.72 | 265.18 | 291.91 | 321.33 | 353.71 | 389.37 |
Tax Rate | 22.40% | 26.00% | -16.86% | 17.71% | 26.50% | 15.15% | 15.15% | 15.15% | 15.15% | 15.15% |
EBIAT | 211.41 | 129.39 | 87.34 | 135.14 | 173.99 | 225 | 247.68 | 272.65 | 300.13 | 330.38 |
Depreciation | 60.20 | 56.95 | 47.12 | 60.79 | 81.44 | 89.65 | 98.68 | 108.63 | 119.58 | 131.63 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1.58 | 17.70 | -25.56 | -47.02 | -18.69 | -20.58 | -22.65 | -24.93 | -27.45 |
Inventories | - | -15.59 | 11.66 | -7.53 | -29.35 | -13.59 | -12.55 | -13.81 | -15.20 | -16.74 |
Accounts Payable | - | -21.33 | 1.73 | 30.64 | -26 | 63.63 | 17.37 | 19.12 | 21.05 | 23.17 |
Capital Expenditure | -64.92 | -71.10 | -37.37 | -65.11 | -45.32 | -85.12 | -93.70 | -103.15 | -113.54 | -124.99 |
UFCF | 206.69 | 76.74 | 128.18 | 128.37 | 107.74 | 260.88 | 236.91 | 260.79 | 287.08 | 316.01 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 244.98 | 208.92 | 215.96 | 223.24 | 230.76 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,123.85 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.49 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 322.33 |
Terminal Value | 7,178.93 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,242.22 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 6,366.07 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 409.11 |
Equity Value | 5,956.97 |
Shares Outstanding | 208.75 |
Equity Value Per Share | 28.54 |