Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Altri, SGPS, S.A. (ALTR.LS)
4.046 €
-0.05 (-1.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 656.06 | 777.61 | 735.54 | 608.58 | 785.22 | 834.06 | 885.94 | 941.05 | 999.59 | 1,061.77 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 186.34 | 323.89 | 226.38 | 119.09 | 226.23 | 248.90 | 264.39 | 280.83 | 298.30 | 316.86 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 132.65 | 263.68 | 151.04 | 42.18 | 150.05 | 167.99 | 178.44 | 189.53 | 201.32 | 213.85 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 53.69 | 60.20 | 75.35 | 76.91 | 76.18 | 80.92 | 85.95 | 91.30 | 96.98 | 103.01 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 193.60 | 240.77 | 181.34 | 254.57 | 238.94 | 262.54 | 278.87 | 296.22 | 314.64 | 334.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 113 | 129 | 91 | 72 | 104 | 118.87 | 126.27 | 134.12 | 142.46 | 151.33 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 50.73 | 70.10 | 85.68 | 74.02 | 81.55 | 84.98 | 90.27 | 95.88 | 101.85 | 108.18 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 95.37 | 123.71 | 102.38 | 104.10 | 134.74 | 131.17 | 139.33 | 147.99 | 157.20 | 166.98 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -84.97 | -64.92 | -71.10 | -37.37 | -65.11 | -75.73 | -80.44 | -85.45 | -90.76 | -96.41 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.046 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.115 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 205.13 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.71 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.51% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.957 |
Total Debt | 656.77 |
Total Equity | 829.96 |
Total Capital | 1,486.74 |
Debt Weighting | 44.18 |
Equity Weighting | 55.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 656.06 | 777.61 | 735.54 | 608.58 | 785.22 | 834.06 | 885.94 | 941.05 | 999.59 | 1,061.77 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 186.34 | 323.89 | 226.38 | 119.09 | 226.23 | 248.90 | 264.39 | 280.83 | 298.30 | 316.86 |
EBIT | 132.65 | 263.68 | 151.04 | 42.18 | 150.05 | 167.99 | 178.44 | 189.53 | 201.32 | 213.85 |
Tax Rate | 18.99% | 22.40% | 26.00% | -16.86% | 17.71% | 13.65% | 13.65% | 13.65% | 13.65% | 13.65% |
EBIAT | 107.46 | 204.62 | 111.76 | 49.30 | 123.48 | 145.06 | 154.08 | 163.67 | 173.85 | 184.66 |
Depreciation | 53.69 | 60.20 | 75.35 | 76.91 | 76.18 | 80.92 | 85.95 | 91.30 | 96.98 | 103.01 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -16 | 38 | 19 | -32 | -14.87 | -7.39 | -7.85 | -8.34 | -8.86 |
Inventories | - | -19.37 | -15.59 | 11.66 | -7.53 | -3.43 | -5.29 | -5.61 | -5.96 | -6.34 |
Accounts Payable | - | 28.34 | -21.33 | 1.73 | 30.64 | -3.58 | 8.16 | 8.67 | 9.21 | 9.78 |
Capital Expenditure | -84.97 | -64.92 | -71.10 | -37.37 | -65.11 | -75.73 | -80.44 | -85.45 | -90.76 | -96.41 |
UFCF | 76.18 | 192.87 | 117.09 | 121.22 | 125.66 | 128.36 | 155.07 | 164.71 | 174.96 | 185.84 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 121.48 | 138.87 | 139.60 | 140.32 | 141.06 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 681.33 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.67 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 189.56 |
Terminal Value | 5,165.15 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,920.34 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,601.67 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 417.83 |
Equity Value | 4,183.84 |
Shares Outstanding | 205.13 |
Equity Value Per Share | 20.40 |