Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Altri, SGPS, S.A. (ALTR.LS)

4.046 €

-0.05 (-1.32%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 20.40 | 4.046 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	656.06	777.61	735.54	608.58	785.22	834.06	885.94	941.05	999.59	1,061.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	186.34	323.89	226.38	119.09	226.23	248.90	264.39	280.83	298.30	316.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	132.65	263.68	151.04	42.18	150.05	167.99	178.44	189.53	201.32	213.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	53.69	60.20	75.35	76.91	76.18	80.92	85.95	91.30	96.98	103.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	193.60	240.77	181.34	254.57	238.94	262.54	278.87	296.22	314.64	334.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	113	129	91	72	104	118.87	126.27	134.12	142.46	151.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	50.73	70.10	85.68	74.02	81.55	84.98	90.27	95.88	101.85	108.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	95.37	123.71	102.38	104.10	134.74	131.17	139.33	147.99	157.20	166.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-84.97	-64.92	-71.10	-37.37	-65.11	-75.73	-80.44	-85.45	-90.76	-96.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.046
Beta	1.115
Diluted Shares Outstanding	205.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.71
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.957
Total Debt	656.77
Total Equity	829.96
Total Capital	1,486.74
Debt Weighting	44.18
Equity Weighting	55.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	656.06	777.61	735.54	608.58	785.22	834.06	885.94	941.05	999.59	1,061.77
EBITDA	186.34	323.89	226.38	119.09	226.23	248.90	264.39	280.83	298.30	316.86
EBIT	132.65	263.68	151.04	42.18	150.05	167.99	178.44	189.53	201.32	213.85
Tax Rate	18.99%	22.40%	26.00%	-16.86%	17.71%	13.65%	13.65%	13.65%	13.65%	13.65%
EBIAT	107.46	204.62	111.76	49.30	123.48	145.06	154.08	163.67	173.85	184.66
Depreciation	53.69	60.20	75.35	76.91	76.18	80.92	85.95	91.30	96.98	103.01
Accounts Receivable	-	-16	38	19	-32	-14.87	-7.39	-7.85	-8.34	-8.86
Inventories	-	-19.37	-15.59	11.66	-7.53	-3.43	-5.29	-5.61	-5.96	-6.34
Accounts Payable	-	28.34	-21.33	1.73	30.64	-3.58	8.16	8.67	9.21	9.78
Capital Expenditure	-84.97	-64.92	-71.10	-37.37	-65.11	-75.73	-80.44	-85.45	-90.76	-96.41
UFCF	76.18	192.87	117.09	121.22	125.66	128.36	155.07	164.71	174.96	185.84
WACC
PV UFCF						121.48	138.87	139.60	140.32	141.06
SUM PV UFCF										681.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.67
Free cash flow (t + 1)	189.56
Terminal Value	5,165.15
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,920.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,601.67
Net Debt	417.83
Equity Value	4,183.84
Shares Outstanding	205.13
Equity Value Per Share	20.40