Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Altri, SGPS, S.A. (ALTR.LS)

4.274 €

+0.03 (+0.71%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 28.54 | 4.274 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	777.61	735.54	608.58	785.22	1,051.90	1,157.92	1,274.63	1,403.10	1,544.53	1,700.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	332.63	231.80	121.86	225.01	318.16	354.83	390.59	429.96	473.29	521
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	272.43	174.86	74.74	164.22	236.72	265.18	291.91	321.33	353.71	389.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	60.20	56.95	47.12	60.79	81.44	89.65	98.68	108.63	119.58	131.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	240.77	181.34	254.57	238.94	233.61	347.57	382.60	421.17	463.62	510.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	129	130.58	112.88	138.43	185.45	204.14	224.72	247.36	272.30	299.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	70.10	85.68	74.02	81.55	110.90	124.49	137.03	150.85	166.05	182.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	123.71	102.38	104.10	134.74	108.74	172.37	189.75	208.87	229.92	253.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-64.92	-71.10	-37.37	-65.11	-45.32	-85.12	-93.70	-103.15	-113.54	-124.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.274
Beta	1.164
Diluted Shares Outstanding	208.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.50
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.093
Total Debt	642.71
Total Equity	892.20
Total Capital	1,534.92
Debt Weighting	41.87
Equity Weighting	58.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	777.61	735.54	608.58	785.22	1,051.90	1,157.92	1,274.63	1,403.10	1,544.53	1,700.20
EBITDA	332.63	231.80	121.86	225.01	318.16	354.83	390.59	429.96	473.29	521
EBIT	272.43	174.86	74.74	164.22	236.72	265.18	291.91	321.33	353.71	389.37
Tax Rate	22.40%	26.00%	-16.86%	17.71%	26.50%	15.15%	15.15%	15.15%	15.15%	15.15%
EBIAT	211.41	129.39	87.34	135.14	173.99	225	247.68	272.65	300.13	330.38
Depreciation	60.20	56.95	47.12	60.79	81.44	89.65	98.68	108.63	119.58	131.63
Accounts Receivable	-	-1.58	17.70	-25.56	-47.02	-18.69	-20.58	-22.65	-24.93	-27.45
Inventories	-	-15.59	11.66	-7.53	-29.35	-13.59	-12.55	-13.81	-15.20	-16.74
Accounts Payable	-	-21.33	1.73	30.64	-26	63.63	17.37	19.12	21.05	23.17
Capital Expenditure	-64.92	-71.10	-37.37	-65.11	-45.32	-85.12	-93.70	-103.15	-113.54	-124.99
UFCF	206.69	76.74	128.18	128.37	107.74	260.88	236.91	260.79	287.08	316.01
WACC
PV UFCF						244.98	208.92	215.96	223.24	230.76
SUM PV UFCF										1,123.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.49
Free cash flow (t + 1)	322.33
Terminal Value	7,178.93
Present Value of Terminal Value	5,242.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	6,366.07
Net Debt	409.11
Equity Value	5,956.97
Shares Outstanding	208.75
Equity Value Per Share	28.54