Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

UPERGY Société Anonyme (ALUPG.PA)

3.56 €

+0.02 (+0.56%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 18.54 | 3.56 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	43.98	43.02	44.24	42.57	44.45	44.59	44.74	44.88	45.03	45.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5.36	-0.20	0.35	0.44	3.51	1.91	1.92	1.92	1.93	1.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	4.64	-0.65	-0.21	-0.34	3.18	1.33	1.34	1.34	1.34	1.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	0.72	0.45	0.56	0.77	0.33	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	2.88	5.77	6.01	6.98	3.92	5.24	5.26	5.28	5.29	5.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	8.38	8.85	8.87	7.51	9.79	8.86	8.89	8.92	8.95	8.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4.80	5.69	4.55	4.62	3.56	4.75	4.77	4.78	4.80	4.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.43	-0.47	-0.53	-0.30	-0.68	-0.49	-0.49	-0.49	-0.49	-0.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.56
Beta	0.344
Diluted Shares Outstanding	4.66
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.43
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.111
Total Debt	8.84
Total Equity	16.59
Total Capital	25.42
Debt Weighting	34.76
Equity Weighting	65.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	43.98	43.02	44.24	42.57	44.45	44.59	44.74	44.88	45.03	45.17
EBITDA	5.36	-0.20	0.35	0.44	3.51	1.91	1.92	1.92	1.93	1.93
EBIT	4.64	-0.65	-0.21	-0.34	3.18	1.33	1.34	1.34	1.34	1.35
Tax Rate	8.68%	9.39%	-34.57%	-91.04%	18.43%	-17.82%	-17.82%	-17.82%	-17.82%	-17.82%
EBIAT	4.23	-0.59	-0.28	-0.64	2.59	1.57	1.57	1.58	1.58	1.59
Depreciation	0.72	0.45	0.56	0.77	0.33	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.59
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-0.47	-0.02	1.36	-2.28	0.93	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03
Accounts Payable	-	0.89	-1.14	0.08	-1.07	1.20	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
Capital Expenditure	-0.43	-0.47	-0.53	-0.30	-0.68	-0.49	-0.49	-0.49	-0.49	-0.50
UFCF	4.53	-0.19	-1.42	1.27	-1.10	3.78	1.65	1.66	1.66	1.67
WACC
PV UFCF						3.64	1.53	1.48	1.43	1.39
SUM PV UFCF										9.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	3.73
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1.70
Terminal Value	98.22
Present Value of Terminal Value	81.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	91.26
Net Debt	4.91
Equity Value	86.35
Shares Outstanding	4.66
Equity Value Per Share	18.54