Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Valbiotis SA (ALVAL.PA)

6.12 €

-0.04 (-0.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -34.09 | 6.12 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.491.461.314.352.053.927.5114.3927.5752.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -2.30-4.63-4.21-2.37-7.51-11.97-22.94-43.93-84.15-161.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2.37-4.88-5.15-3.41-8.45-13.33-25.53-48.89-93.66-179.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.070.260.941.040.941.352.594.969.5018.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 10.607.428.0314.5921.8236.6870.26134.57257.76493.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.130.130.290.310.420.661.272.424.648.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.410.880.681.411.462.354.508.6216.5131.63
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.63-0.84-0.29-0.33-0.42-1.85-3.54-6.79-13-24.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.12
Beta 0.654
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.977
Total Debt 7.59
Total Equity 657.81
Total Capital 665.41
Debt Weighting 1.14
Equity Weighting 98.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 0.491.461.314.352.053.927.5114.3927.5752.81
EBITDA -2.30-4.63-4.21-2.37-7.51-11.97-22.94-43.93-84.15-161.19
EBIT -2.37-4.88-5.15-3.41-8.45-13.33-25.53-48.89-93.66-179.39
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT -2.37-4.88-5.15-3.41-8.45-13.33-25.53-48.89-93.66-179.39
Depreciation 0.070.260.941.040.941.352.594.969.5018.20
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -0-0.16-0.03-0.11-0.24-0.61-1.16-2.22-4.25
Accounts Payable -0.46-0.200.730.060.892.154.127.8915.12
Capital Expenditure -0.63-0.84-0.29-0.33-0.42-1.85-3.54-6.79-13-24.91
UFCF -2.93-5-4.86-1.99-7.98-13.18-24.93-47.76-91.49-175.24
WACC
PV UFCF -12.44-22.22-40.17-72.63-131.32
SUM PV UFCF -278.77

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) -178.74
Terminal Value -4,536.56
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,399.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,678.37
Net Debt -14.23
Equity Value -3,664.14
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share -34.09